Whiplash

In less than a week, the momentum of the presidential campaign has clearly shifted.

Just a week ago today, pundits and Republicans were fawning over the GOP convention. They claimed it was the most unifying event in recent Republican history. The organizers got kudos from across the political spectrum. NPR declared that “The women in Trump's orbit are humanizing him.” They said the choice of millennial J.D. Vance as VP indicated that “Republicans are looking to the next generation of voters.” Despite his nutty speech, Trump looked like a candidate with solid momentum and the wind at his back.

In contrast, Democrats were in a nasty fight over Joe Biden’s candidacy. Polls showed the president sinking in swing states and Trump pulling ahead nationally by increasing margins. Trump’s favorability ratings were significantly higher than Biden’s. Democrats were demoralized, angry, and scared.

On Sunday, it all turned on a dime. Biden announced his decision to leave the race and endorsed Kamala Harris. Quickly, all talk of an open convention disappeared and the party coalesced around the Vice President. Within 48 hours, she had secured the delegates needed for the nomination. The infighting literally evaporated into thin air.

Enthusiasm for the new candidacy exploded. Harris raised more than $80 million in the first 24 hours. On Sunday night, a zoom call that resulted in 44,000 Black women raising money and laying the ground work for a grassroots campaign began a trend. A group of Black men followed and last night more than 100,000 white women had their own call, raising almost $2 million and pledging to support efforts to elect Harris.

The kids got into the act on TikTok and social media. Harris became a meme queen, garnering support and attention from younger voters that Democrats need to win. Harris adopted the green “brat” theme of Charli XCX in her new logo and she joined TikTok. Her social media team has been crushing Trump.

On Tuesday, Harris took the stage in Wisconsin for her first speech as the presumed nominee. She garnered rave reviews, attacking Trump and drawing a contrast between her vision for America and his. Yesterday, she released the first video of the campaign, reiterating that message and focusing on hope instead of fear.

And in the midst of all this activity, Republicans find themselves with buyer’s remorse for J.D. Vance. Trump and company clearly thought this election was going to be about motivating his angry base. Vance’s dystopian view of America and his dark, authoritarian solutions fit the campaign taking the country hard to the right. He echoed Trump instead of complimenting him.

Now, they face a happy warrior offering Americans an optimistic vision and Vance seems more of a liability than an asset. Everyday, more video or audio of Vance surfaces with statements that reinforce the image of the GOP as a dark force, subjugating or demeaning women. According the New York Times, Vance “lamented that the United States was being run by ‘childless cat ladies’ like Vice President Kamala Harris, women who he claimed had no ‘direct stake’ in the country’s future.” Last night, audio surfaced of Vance advocating for a federal ban abortion. At a time when Trump has been trying to moderate on the issue, Vance is putting it front and center. They will have a more difficult putting abortion behind them.

The excitement behind Kamala Harris mirrors what people on both sides of the aisle have been saying for months. Bill Maher has been criticized for calling on Democrats to replace Biden, but he was probably right when he suggested that Americans want a different choice than Trump or the president and the party should give it to them. Nikki Haley predicted that the party that replaced their 80 year old candidate first would win the presidency. Polls have long been telling us that voters wanted different candidates and there seems to be a collective sigh of relief that we are not stuck with two men who would be in their mid-80s before their term ended.

All of the enthusiasm might not show up in polls immediately. The excitement right now is driven by activists and people heavily invested in politics. Lower information voters will start to feel the effects of the momentum later than those of us following closely. As Matthew Dowd wrote on Twitter, “When political races fundamentally shift here is the order of what happens in polling: first enthusiasm gap closes, second favorability numbers adjust, third ballot begins to change. So far enthusiasm gap is closing, favorability numbers are beginning to move, ballot next.”

Politics happens fast. Just a week ago today, Republicans believed they were heading to an easy victory, coming off a successful convention as a unified party. Now, they’re trying to retool their campaign to compete against a different type of opponent. Democrats, who seemed to be living in a doom loop until Sunday, are energized in a way not seen since Obama. The momentum is clearly with Harris as she heads toward her nominating convention in Chicago next month. While Democrats should not second guess the enthusiasm, they should keep in mind the speed with which the election shifted.