What most voters get wrong

Plus another update on North Carolina early voters.

I’ll give a brief update on the early voting in a minute, but I want to talk about one aspect of elections and language that misses most voters and probably always will.

We have what may be the strongest economy in history, certainly in decades. Inflation is now in check. Wages are up. The economy is growing by about three percent per quarter. Unemployment is at a 50 year low. Economically, we are blowing away other developed nations. We’ve achieved a miraculous soft landing from inflation. And yet Biden isn’t getting any credit.

Most people have little understanding of the economy or how it works. Every president inherits an economy from their predecessor. So, the economy that everybody hated for the past three years or so was the Trump economy. The Trump economy that they remember so fondly was the Obama economy. In 2010, Democrats lost huge largely because Obama couldn’t fix in two years the wrecked economy that Bush left him.

Back in 2000, Bush inherited the Clinton economy which included the first and only balanced budget since the beginning of the Reagan Revolution. And Reagan inherited Carter’s economy that included the awful stagflation of the late 1970s. He had a rough first two years in office because of the painful fix of high interest rates that reached into the 20% range. Whoever wins this election will inherit the best economy of the 21st century and will likely get credit for it, at least for the next two years.

Democrats have made three political mistakes since they took the White House after Trump. Given the success of Biden’s administration, the election should not be close. Trump has been fired once and candidates who try to run after losing are rarely successful. Trump should be getting beat soundly if the records of the two presidents were accurately compared.

First, Democrats have failed to tout their successes. In the summer of 2022, Joe Biden had one of the most successful legislative records in decades, particularly given the partisan division that defines the period. He passed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, comprehensive gun control, the CHIPs act, and ended the summer with the Inflation Reduction Act, a budget that reflected the values of Democrats, making crucial investments in green energy that is reshaping our economy. They should have been doing rallies and ribbon cuttings for a solid year. They should have spent big money telling people how that record is benefiting them. Instead, they checked it off the to-do list and move on.

Second, they failed to keep reminding voters how bad the Trump years were. They allowed voters to see his presidency through rose colored glasses as the country struggled to recover from the pandemic. They fired Trump in 2020, in part, because of his erratic governance and non-stop drama. Biden ran on the premise that he didn’t want people thinking about him every day. Instead of focusing so heavily on January 6, they should have spent money on ads just focusing on his bizarre headlines and the clown show of crooks and grifters that surrounded his administration.

Finally, they should have made more of an effort to prevent Biden from announcing his re-election in April of 2023. Back then, I felt like we needed to trust Biden’s inner circle to determine whether he was up for another four years. His record certainly warranted another term. Still, he was clearly too old and a healthy primary may have shone more of a light on his successful record while reducing his disapproval ratings. The campaign last fall and spring would certainly have been more robust.

Biden will be treated far more generously in the history books than he is today. He has had a very successful one-term presidency and Democrats have done too little to remind people of his achievements. This economy should be propelling all Democrats toward a successful election. Maybe it still will, but the election probably shouldn’t be this close.

Now, for the update on North Carolina’s early voting. Democrats are finishing the early voting period strong. More registered Democrats have now voted in-person than during the same period in 2020. They will likely go into Election Day in slightly better shape than four years ago. African Americans have reduced their deficit to about 26,000 votes and are on schedule to erase the gap completely before the end of early voting.

Even more encouraging, of the Black voters who have not voted, almost 500,000 have a history of voting in either 2022, 2020, or 2018. Most of those voters will likely cast a ballot. Black voters appear well situated to surpass their 2020 turnout.

Dr. Michael Bitzer looks how voters voted in 2020 compared to 2024. Among Republicans, of those who have voted early this year, nine percent are people who voted on Election Day in 2020. Only three percent of Democrats who have voted so far voted on Election Day four years ago. In other words, Republicans are shrinking their Election Day advantage, not creating new GOP voters.

Finally, the number of first time voters is starting to tick up. Among unaffiliated voters, 16% are people new to the democratic process. They are over mostly younger, indicating they will probably break for Democrats.

Election Day turnout will probably determine the outcome of the election. In 2020, we only had an election day turnout of about 900,000 or so voters. This year, I suspect the number will at least 1.5 million. I also imagine the election will be every bit as close this year as it has been in the past. Buckle up and get to work.