The weekend roundup was depressing

One conservative outlines a Trump dictatorship, while others describe the influence of disinformation and information bias on our opinions

I want to be optimistic about our country’s future, but the reading this weekend makes it difficult. One conservative intellectual speculated that we’re heading to a dictatorship under Trump. Another conservative explained why so many people still support the former president. Another writer echoed that theme when describing how propaganda has skewed people’s perception of the economy. Finally, a report last night showed a mob outside a restaurant, chanting, ““Goldie, Goldie you can’t hide, we charge you with genocide!” because the owner is Jewish.

The most talked-about piece among the chattering class was written by conservative writer and intellectual Robert Kagan. He warns of an impending Trump dictatorship. It’s a thoroughly depressing article because much of his premise seems so plausible. Kagan notes that the Republican establishment will do nothing to stop Trump once the campaign begins in earnest. The so-called grownups who kept Trump in check during his first administration will be frozen out, replaced by lackeys and Heritage Foundation-types who embrace authoritarianism and shun democracy.

While I think he’s probably right about the GOP caving to Trump with people like Mitch McConnell and Thom Tillis catering to him while deluding themselves that they are keeping him in check, I’m not sure Kagan’s right about the broader electorate. While Trump may consolidate his Republican base, the swing voters will probably find themselves repulsed by his increasingly authoritarian language and impulses. Democrats, for their part, will need to consolidate their base and overcome the obvious division, particularly among young people. I think that scenario, Democrats consolidating their base and swing voters rejecting Trump, is at least as likely as the one Kagan fears.

In another article, conservative columnist David French describes how the electorate has sorted itself into bubbles, leaving it open to manipulation. He notes that in this great sorting, we only hear what we want to hear. If you’re asking how people can support someone as corrupt as Trump, well, many people haven’t even heard about his most egregious misdeeds. They are only getting their information from places like Fox News and Newsmax that don’t report anything negative about Trump. They probably don’t know that he was found liable for sexual assault. They don’t know that a judge found him and his company liable for fraud. They also aren’t hearing about the craziest members of the GOP caucus in Congress.

In contrast, they also don’t know that the economy grew at 5.2% last quarter or that, month-over-month, inflation was zero. Or that unemployment below 4% for almost two years. Or that wages have been rising faster than inflation for months. They are told any of that. The algorithms that drive content on social media and the web don’t serve up media that conflicts or contradicts our worldview and their worldview is that Trump is good and Biden is bad.

French notes that it’s not just conservatives who are getting confirmation bias. Progressives and Democrats aren’t seeing much to challenge their beliefs, either. He writes, “…if you’re a politically active progressive, your curated feeds may be full of critiques of ‘late capitalism’ and examples of economic failure and injustice.” Both conservatives and progressives are seeing a lot of criticism of he economy, even though indicators show that we’re in one the strongest economies in decades.

Similarly, Brian Beutler, a liberal columnist, believes propaganda is largely driving economic despair. He notes that, in the past, the economy has been in much worse shape while public perception of it was not nearly as bad as it is now. Beutler believes that a steady stream of negative stories on the economy, often put into people’s feeds by the algorithms Frenchs discusses, have soured people on the economy even if their personal financial situation is pretty solid.

In other words, perception is not meeting reality. While French believes that we’re only hearing what we want to hear, Beutler argues that information is leading us to be ill-informed, not just more biased. We’re getting more information than ever, but much of it may be inaccurate or skewed and we’re getting almost nothing that challenges our inherent biases.

In another time, voters would probably much more favorable to Biden. The economy is really strong. GDP grew at more than 5%. Inflation is all but beaten. Wages are up. Personal wealth is up. Consumer spending is up. All indicators show a country that’s emerged from the pandemic on solid footing. People are even acting like the economy is strong, spending heavily on holiday items, yet they’re telling pollsters that they are dissatisfied with direction of the country and Biden’s handling of the economy.

It’s that sentiment that makes Kagan’s prediction a bit scary. As a political consultant, I’ve always believed that people vote their self-interest. If they are feeling good about their financial situation, which most are, then they would stick with the status quo. However, the disinformation, propaganda, and alarmism perpetrated by social media algorithms makes me nervous because we are in uncharted territory. I hope that as the election draws nearer, people will tune out the information instead of gathering more of it and look at their situations, see that they are employed, paying their bills, saving money, and generally doing okay.

Finally, I think the disinformation that Beutler describes and the information bubbles that French describes combine to drive the rise in antisemitism like the protest in Philadelphia. Last week, I mentioned a reader who sent me an email full of antisemitic disinformation and the conflict in Gaza. They responded later by sending what were clearly propaganda videos bashing Israel and the “Zionist” press to prove their point. I went to the source of the video and it’s somebody who had hundreds, maybe thousands, of anti-Isreal, pro-Hamas propaganda TikTok videos. The reader was easily mislead by somebody who clearly has nefarious intent. I imagine algorithms paired her with the videos and nobody in their circle disabused them of the notion that “Zionists” are the problem.

I do not think Trump is inevitable, but I don’t think he’s impossible, either. Our sorting into information silos makes it easier for disinformation or propaganda to take root because collectively we don’t hear enough dissenting voices. On the contrary, with the help of algorithms, we shut them out. We create our own realities instead of a shared one.

As far as campaigns go, they need to better understand how to penetrate some bubbles and influence people programmed to disagree with them. In other bubbles, they need to figure out to prevent disinformation from changing the minds of people predisposed to support them. The days when 90% of Americans could be reached with television ads during primetime is long gone. Understanding the new diffuse environment is imperative.