The most consequential primaries

Two Democratic primaries could determine if the party can sustain vetoes

Two of the most interesting and potentially important primaries in North Carolina are relatively low key races for state house seats. Incumbents Cecil Brockman and Michael Wray face challengers in safe Democratic districts because of votes they took supporting Republican legislation. The outcomes of these races could determine the power of Democrats in the next legislature to block GOP legislation by sustaining the governor’s veto.

Brockman and Wray, along with a couple of other Democrats, voted with Republicans on several bills, including the budget, and were absent for several veto override votes. Democrats saw the votes as disloyal and pledged to recruit primary opponents for the rebels. Brockman and Wray drew relatively strong opponents and now face tough primary fights to hold their seats.

As payment for their loyalty, GOP dark money groups are coming the the aid of the two beleaguered legislators. The group, Carolina Leadership Coalition, praised Brockman and Wray for their independence in mailers to their districts. While the support may be showing gratitude for their support in the past, some Democrats fear it also might be a downpayment on support in the future. Tricia Cotham’s decision to switch parties mid-session last year makes Democrats wary of legislators who won’t toe the party line.

Since Republicans took control of the legislature in 2011, they have gerrymandered themselves solid majorities in both the state house and state senate. They steamrolled through legislation that reshaped much of state government, including our tax system, public school schools, and public universities. With the election of Democrat Roy Cooper as governor in 2016, Democrats have relied on sustaining his veto to block the most egregious legislation. With tight numbers, they can’t afford defectors like Wray and Brockman.

In their defense, Wray and Brockman say that they are just looking out for their districts. They claim their districts are more conservative than those of a lot of Democrats. Wray is from a rural district along the Virginia line in northeastern North Carolina. Brockman is from a majority Black district in High Point.

Brockman says that he was able to get $29 million for his poor district, money he would not have received had he voted against the budget. That argument brings to light the nature of legislative politics. In order to achieve their goals, house Democrats need a united front. Brockman cut a side deal with Republicans, leaving his fellow Democrats feeling betrayed. Bragging about it is like rubbing salt into a wound since his fellow Democrats stayed loyal to the caucus instead of working with Republicans to get their own deals.

Brockman and Wray are right that their districts are more conservative than a lot of more urban districts. They’re heavily working class with large African American populations. Both legislators argue that they are trying to get resources for districts that are poor compared to a lot of the more urban districts that are represented by other Democrats.

Democrats, rightfully, feel burned by Tricia Cotham. Many believe that she was a Trojan Horse candidate who was always planning to switch parties after she won her heavily Democratic district. I’m not sure that’s right, but she did have the luxury of switching in a year when the legislature was redistricting. Consequently, the GOP drew her a district that gives her better than a fighting chance of getting re-elected.

Wray and Brockman would not have that luxury if they switched parties. They come from districts that voted heavily for Joe Biden in 2020 and Cherie Beasley in 2022. If they switch parties, they would be assured of losing their seats running as Republicans.

That said, if they get re-elected, they don’t have much reason to stay loyal to the caucus, either. They can continue to cut side deals with the GOP to get money for their districts in exchange for key votes for Republicans’ pet issues. However, if they lose, they will serve as a warning to Democrats who decided to buck the leadership. And if Mark Robinson or some other Republican becomes governor, they will find out exactly how important they are to GOP house leaders.