Yes, the revised Democratic ticket definitely changed the course of the 2024 election campaign, and all Harris has done as enumerated here rings true. But why this is such a "fiercely" fighting election--when it should not even be--has much to do about how our electorate thinks about money, particularly those who think something bad is going to happen to "their" millions. My money, my money, my money stays on the minds of those anticipating some policy talk tonight in a "so called" debate. First of all, the spectacle is not a debate. Quite significant though this televised "event" will be. Second, this election is not about policy. It's about having had no peaceful transfer of power in 2020 and 187 minutes on Jan. 6, 2021. It's about a person who watched what happened and did nothing. That person does not want jail. A vote for him means this felon could walk. We have an election not about political parties. PERIOD. That said, yes, Kamala Harris is deft at prioritizing time. Let's PRAY she does not use a brain cell trying to sell policies she will not have enough time to explain. Just go jugular on him; punch hard; use gentle power. TAKE CHARGE. Greedy people with tons of $$$$ riding on this spectacle hope to hear something about policy that makes them "think" THEIR money is safe. Make them THINK about 187 minutes. One possible approach would be to call for 187 seconds of silence during which time say nothing.
For many of us in the middle of the road, it’s January 6th that makes this pick an obvious one.
I started a VA job today. Orientation began with a 15 minute review of our constitution, followed by one minute to be sworn in. Those 16 minutes solidified for me the importance of our election process, and the need for a president who believes that the law is the supreme rule of our land, not nobility.
Tuesday’s debate is a must-win for Trump. If he doesn’t score a few serious body blows against Harris I believe many of his “go along to get along” supporters will see him as a long-in-the-tooth blowhard who can’t win an election against Harris and will either sit out the election or, in larger than expected numbers, quietly give their vote to Kamala Harris.
As the Democrat curmudgeon here, I have come to expect your upbeat assessment, which I accrue to partisan wishful thinking which is a fairly universal phenomenon that somehow escaped me.
Sure Dem prospects went from abysmal to reasonable when Biden dropped out, but with Nate Silver now calling Trump a 60% likelihood (and Silver overcalled the Dem hand in the two last Presidentials considerably) and the Betting Markets in agreement, "phenomenal" is a bit hyperbolic, nuh?
Harris' npv margin has dropped from a peak at the start of the convention at +3.7 on August 23 to today's +2.8 which is well below either Clinton or Biden's numbers and even below Clintons actual vote margin.
The problem with over confidence is it leads to faulty decisions. If Dems think that they can coast into this based on 'joy' and the fact that Trump is an ogre and moron and threat to democracy (never has stopped him before) they will play their hand poorly.
I got a Trump flyer in the mail yesterday, and as somebody that detests Orange Julius, none the less, it was a smart piece. He immediately attacked Project 2025 as "ridiculous and abysmal" and championed Social Security and Medicare. He promoted getting rid of Social Security taxes and tips on wait staff, to boost his populist cred. He is playing defense against his weak spots, denouncing his own extremists and pretending he is the peoples man as opposed to the wealthy.
I don't see Harris playing defense. She needs to come on as strong as Trump is in rejecting P 2025 and oppose open borders, defund the police, and that she is a leftist. If you ignore Trumps attacks, then people start believing them. Biden won as he was perceived as a moderate. Harris needs to gain the middle.
Nate Silver is also the one who stood behind his "red wave" theory for the 2022 election until the bitter end. I don't think his "model" has taken into account how enraged women have been since the Dobbs decision. GOP candidates have underperformed in every single election since then.
Plus I don't believe any of these polls include newly registered voters. "Likely voters" are comprised of people who have voted in PAST elections, so they fail to take into account the enthusiasm that has resulted in huge increases in Voter Registration since Biden passed the torch. All of the voter registration over-performance is in groups that traditionally support Democrats to a greater extent than Republicans.
If you haven't watched it already, I really recommend everyone watch this video with a conversation between Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles and Tom Bonier from Target Smart:
Debate, debate, debate, debate: That's what undecided or uniformed voters will make their decision on. Counter Trump effectively and don't say he or his supporters are "deplorables" to quote Hillary Clinton. She must be in the role of successful political prosecutor. And her New Way Forward campaign tour after the debate starts in Charlotte and Greensboro Thursday
Let’s Go get Kamala and Tim elected 💙
Yes, the revised Democratic ticket definitely changed the course of the 2024 election campaign, and all Harris has done as enumerated here rings true. But why this is such a "fiercely" fighting election--when it should not even be--has much to do about how our electorate thinks about money, particularly those who think something bad is going to happen to "their" millions. My money, my money, my money stays on the minds of those anticipating some policy talk tonight in a "so called" debate. First of all, the spectacle is not a debate. Quite significant though this televised "event" will be. Second, this election is not about policy. It's about having had no peaceful transfer of power in 2020 and 187 minutes on Jan. 6, 2021. It's about a person who watched what happened and did nothing. That person does not want jail. A vote for him means this felon could walk. We have an election not about political parties. PERIOD. That said, yes, Kamala Harris is deft at prioritizing time. Let's PRAY she does not use a brain cell trying to sell policies she will not have enough time to explain. Just go jugular on him; punch hard; use gentle power. TAKE CHARGE. Greedy people with tons of $$$$ riding on this spectacle hope to hear something about policy that makes them "think" THEIR money is safe. Make them THINK about 187 minutes. One possible approach would be to call for 187 seconds of silence during which time say nothing.
And whatever Kamala does, DO NOT shake his stink hand. Do not snark him. Go full on warrior with your sacred feminine; give him the high heel.
For many of us in the middle of the road, it’s January 6th that makes this pick an obvious one.
I started a VA job today. Orientation began with a 15 minute review of our constitution, followed by one minute to be sworn in. Those 16 minutes solidified for me the importance of our election process, and the need for a president who believes that the law is the supreme rule of our land, not nobility.
Tuesday’s debate is a must-win for Trump. If he doesn’t score a few serious body blows against Harris I believe many of his “go along to get along” supporters will see him as a long-in-the-tooth blowhard who can’t win an election against Harris and will either sit out the election or, in larger than expected numbers, quietly give their vote to Kamala Harris.
As the Democrat curmudgeon here, I have come to expect your upbeat assessment, which I accrue to partisan wishful thinking which is a fairly universal phenomenon that somehow escaped me.
Sure Dem prospects went from abysmal to reasonable when Biden dropped out, but with Nate Silver now calling Trump a 60% likelihood (and Silver overcalled the Dem hand in the two last Presidentials considerably) and the Betting Markets in agreement, "phenomenal" is a bit hyperbolic, nuh?
Harris' npv margin has dropped from a peak at the start of the convention at +3.7 on August 23 to today's +2.8 which is well below either Clinton or Biden's numbers and even below Clintons actual vote margin.
The problem with over confidence is it leads to faulty decisions. If Dems think that they can coast into this based on 'joy' and the fact that Trump is an ogre and moron and threat to democracy (never has stopped him before) they will play their hand poorly.
I got a Trump flyer in the mail yesterday, and as somebody that detests Orange Julius, none the less, it was a smart piece. He immediately attacked Project 2025 as "ridiculous and abysmal" and championed Social Security and Medicare. He promoted getting rid of Social Security taxes and tips on wait staff, to boost his populist cred. He is playing defense against his weak spots, denouncing his own extremists and pretending he is the peoples man as opposed to the wealthy.
I don't see Harris playing defense. She needs to come on as strong as Trump is in rejecting P 2025 and oppose open borders, defund the police, and that she is a leftist. If you ignore Trumps attacks, then people start believing them. Biden won as he was perceived as a moderate. Harris needs to gain the middle.
Nate Silver is also the one who stood behind his "red wave" theory for the 2022 election until the bitter end. I don't think his "model" has taken into account how enraged women have been since the Dobbs decision. GOP candidates have underperformed in every single election since then.
Plus I don't believe any of these polls include newly registered voters. "Likely voters" are comprised of people who have voted in PAST elections, so they fail to take into account the enthusiasm that has resulted in huge increases in Voter Registration since Biden passed the torch. All of the voter registration over-performance is in groups that traditionally support Democrats to a greater extent than Republicans.
If you haven't watched it already, I really recommend everyone watch this video with a conversation between Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles and Tom Bonier from Target Smart:
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/why-the-data-makes-us-optimistic?r=1aiy5t&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Debate, debate, debate, debate: That's what undecided or uniformed voters will make their decision on. Counter Trump effectively and don't say he or his supporters are "deplorables" to quote Hillary Clinton. She must be in the role of successful political prosecutor. And her New Way Forward campaign tour after the debate starts in Charlotte and Greensboro Thursday