Robinson is broke while Harris surges in North Carolina

Harris leads in national polls and her campaign is still growing. Robinson trails by double digits.

Earlier this week, I wrote a post asking when the GOP would cut off funds from Mark Robinson’s campaign. Well, it looks like they have.

According to Ad Impact, a site that tracks ad spending in realtime, Robinson only has $1 million in advertising reserved between now and Election Day. That’s less than a week’s worth of advertising in a statewide media buy. In contrast, Josh Stein has more than $16 million reserved.

In addition, Stein and his allies spent $46.4 million defining Robinson, or more appropriately helping Robinson define himself since most of the ads are just Robinson telling us what he believes. Robinson and his allies have spent more than $20 million trying to stanch bleeding. It hasn’t worked. Poll after poll shows him trailing Stein by double digits. He doesn’t have the resources or the message to recover, though the race will tighten as Election Day gets closer.

As for Stein and the Democrats, they need to keep the pressure on Robinson. When you have your foot on a snake’s neck, don’t let up until you cut off the head, and, in this case, the ax won’t fall until November 5. Democrats need to finish strong to make sure that Robinson’s political career is over and then spread the joy down the ballot to other council of state and judicial races.

Speaking of joy, Kamala Harris is winning, too, though not like Stein. Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in national polls and is tied or leading narrowly in every swing state, according the Nate Silver. The momentum is clearly with Harris and Walz, though the progress has slowed since their meteoric rise at the beginning of the month.

A New York Times editorial proclaimed that “Joy is not a strategy,” but they clearly missed the Obama 2008 campaign. Joy is, in fact, part of the strategy of motivating your base, engaging volunteers, and appealing to low-propensity voters who would otherwise stay home. Enthusiasm is infectious. People want to be part of a winning team. Think N.C. State’s men’s basketball team in the NCAA tournament earlier this year. Even Carolina fans were rooting for them. In my experience, emotions are the biggest drivers of campaigns, whether joy and excitement, hope and change, or fear and anger. Issues and policies are mostly window dressing for the heavily engaged.

The Harris campaign has been virtually flawless so far. The interview last night was another example of understanding the pace and timeline of the election. They rode the wave of excitement through the convention, building momentum and engaging a base of younger voters desperate for a candidate with whom they can identify. They didn’t get distracted by Republican criticisms and laughed at Trump’s insults. They ignored a scolding media’s demand for an interview until the time was right.

And last night, the time was right. In the wake of the convention, as the excitement cooled, Harris agreed to an interview, putting the attention on her campaign again. She looked serious and thoughtful, adding another dimension to her candidacy as voters saw her competent in yet another setting. Now, she’s got eleven days until the debate. Let the speculation begin.

In North Carolina, Harris and Trump are even in most polls. A Bloomberg poll out yesterday says she leads by two in the state, while an Emerson College poll shows her trailing by one. Nate Silver calls the state a tie and the Cook Political report shifted it from “lean Republican” to “tossup.” I expect that will be the case for the rest of the campaign. Still, the momentum is with Harris. She’s closed a gap that Trump built over Biden and the trajectory favors her right now. She’s attracting volunteers and her North Carolina campaign is out canvassing every day.

According to Bloomberg, Trump has spent $16 million in the state over the past five weeks just to stay even. He can’t afford to lose North Carolina. It’s the only battleground state he carried in 2020, but his ground operation is lacking. With Robinson sinking and Trump battling a string of controversies, Republicans could quickly find themselves demoralized.

Winning, on the other hand, is infectious. In North Carolina, Stein has knocked Robinson down. Democrats need to make sure he doesn’t get back up and build on that success. They need to knock doors, write postcards, call voters, and make sure everybody is registered to vote. Harris only wins in North Carolina if they increase turnout among their base, predominantly younger voters and people of color. They need to get on the bus to victory, share the joy, feel the excitement, and make Donald Trump a thing of the past.