Right now, Biden is looking presidential while Republicans are looking cartoonish

As I launched PoliticsNC on Substack, I had planned to focus on North Carolina and shy away from national news for a bit. However, I think what’s happening right now nationally could have a serious impact on what happens in North Carolina in the 2024 election. Joe Biden is exerting himself as the leader of the free world in a manner not seen in a long time. In doing so, he’s making the case for his presidency. In contrast, the GOP in the house is in chaos, giving the impression that they are incapable of governing. While I don’t think either foreign policy or the Speaker debacle is going to drive the election debate, they could shape the public’s views of the two parties.

Biden has been unequivocal in his support for Israel in the wake of the Hamas terrorist attack. Over the past few days, he’s made several well-received addresses, explaining his position and demanding Israel show some restraint to protect civilians in Gaza. Last night, he said that we must reject both antisemitism and islamophobia while arguing that Putin and Hamas are both trying to destabilize the world by attacking democracies. While not everyone agrees with Biden’s approach to the conflict, he’s looking determined and forceful, contrasting the GOP message that he’s out of touch or mentally not up to par.

Biden’s job in the Middle East is to contain the conflict and prevent it from becoming a broader war. If he can do that, he will likely help his chances for re-election. Few people will vote on foreign policy issues unless the country is embroiled in a war where U.S. troops are dying. However, Biden is exerting his influence and I suspect that looking like a world leader will improve his image among the electorate.

In contrast, the GOP house is taking up a lot of air space with their sputtering and incompetence. We’ve now had more than two weeks with no House Speaker and that’s not likely to get resolved today. While most Americans probably are not following this shit show too closely, the GOP’s image is taking a hit. If we end up with a government shutdown next month, they will almost certainly get the blame.

In North Carolina, the presidential race will be dominant in driving turnout and persuading swing voters. That’s not to say that individual campaigns don’t matter, but a lot of voters come out to vote for president who won’t come out to vote for anything else. Biden is shoring up his image, despite what polls might say. He’s offering a contrast to a dysfunctional GOP and deranged Donald Trump. In fact, he’s relegated the former president to the back ground for the past few news cycles—no small feat, especially when Trump is either in court or dealing with issues related to upcoming trials.

The Biden team has a story to tell and they’ll spend the next year telling it. Part of the narrative will contrast Biden’s demeanor to that of Trump. While Trumpists will always applaud bravado, North Carolinians have generally supported more measured responses. Our governors and U.S. Senators have been more serious than flashy. Biden’s performance this week will gain him credibility among people who might not agree with him on everything, but want to see our leaders as rational and steady.

Republicans, for their part, are hurting themselves. They look petty and incompetent. Most people won’t follow the Speaker’s race closely, but the impression of a party in disarray could seep in and dampen enthusiasm for the GOP. If they can’t elect a Speaker by the end of the weekend, I suspect Americans will start to perk up to the problems within the party.

Campaigns and consultants tend to look for specific issues that define candidates, but more general impressions that are difficult to define and often elude polling impact voters decisions, too. Right now, Biden is doing himself a favor simply by looking presidential, whatever that means. Republicans are doing themselves a disservice by looking clownish. The events this week could shape perceptions leading into the election year.