North Carolina early vote update

The gap between 2020 and 2024 Black voters is narrowing and next week the pace will pick up.

Today is the midpoint for in-person early voting in North Carolina. Republicans are the surprise this year in that they clearly have an early vote program that was not in place previously. African Americans lagged their 2020 in-person vote numbers but are now closing the gap. Unaffiliated voters are also showing up in much larger numbers than in the past. Finally, the suburbs are jumping.

First, let me talk about the African American vote since I apparently caused a bit of ruckus earlier in the week. Black voters have been lagging their 2020 numbers by substantial margins but now are voting in bigger numbers. The gap between 2020 and 2024 voters peaked on Monday with about 77,000 more Black voters four years ago than this year during the same time period. As of yesterday, that gap is down to about 63,000 voters among in-person early voters. They can close the gap by the end of early voting since raw numbers are increasing each day.

In 2020, Trump won the state by 75,000 votes, a gap Democrats will need to close. That year, 1,038,375 African Americans voted in North Carolina, for a turnout of 68%. Democrats probably need to push that turnout up to 72 to 73 percent, or close to 1.1 million voters, for Harris to win. African Americans are the most loyal Democratic voters so they will be a key GOTV target. Democrats are more than more than a third of the way to that goal.

Republicans are crowing about their turnout numbers, but, so far, they are only banking votes. About 90% of the Republicans who have voted were going to vote anyway. The difference is that four years ago Trump and the GOP told their voters not to participate in early voting. Their plan, as in previous election cycles, focused on an Election Day GOTV program. This year, they are urging their voters to vote early and since their coalition is made up of high propensity voters, they are following orders.

Democrats, for their part, are essentially keeping pace with 2020 in terms of raw numbers of in-person early voters. Like Republicans, they are largely banking votes, with about 90% of the voters being high propensity voters. Like Republicans, they will need to get lower propensity voters next week and Election Day.

The unaffiliated vote is up considerably over 2020. A lot of these voters are probably conservatives responding to the GOP’s early vote effort. They appear to be older and whiter and about 87% of them are regular general election voters. How they break will impact the outcome.

In good news for Democrats, the urban and suburban areas are voting heavily. Wake County, Orange County, and Mecklenburg County are all running ahead of 2020 totals. Even in counties like Alamance, Democrats are keeping pace. Again, most of these are high propensity voters, but they can be checked off the list of field programs so workers can focus on lower propensity voters.

Next week, early vote numbers will begin to increase after dropping a bit this week. By the Thursday, Friday and Saturday, we should see large numbers each day. Democrats still need to push out more African American voters, but the gap is narrowing and with large turnouts next week, the gap can be closed before Election Day.

The real test will be next week and Election Day to see which party can expand its electorate with new voters. The Republican Party has far more high propensity voters and they had a sky high turnout four years ago. They have fewer targets for GOTV. Democrats have a much less reliable base, but far more targets to push to the polls. The state is still a toss-up and next week’s early vote will give us an idea of what the two party will need to do on Election Day.