WOW, HAVING WORKED WITH GOVERNOR JIM H UNT THROUGH HIS ADMINISTRATIONS, AND ALSO HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WATCH JOSH STEIN OPERATE ON A NUMBER OF IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR NORTH CARORLINA CITIZENS, WE ALL SHOULD WANT HIM TO WIN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE. WE NEED TO CONTINUE GOOD GOVERNORS LIKE GOVERNOR ROY COOPER AND GOVERNOR JIM HUNT. A GOVERNOR JOSH STEIN WOULD ALSO SEE A TERRIFIC FOUR YEARS TO CONTINUE NORTH CAROLINA'S LEADERSHIP IN JOBS DEVELOPMENT, IN EDUCATION, IN SUPPORT FOR A GOOD ENVIRONMENT AND JUST FOCUSING ALSO ON MANAGING COST EFFECTOVE GOVERNMENT OPEARATIONS. STEIN'S WOULD GIVE US AS A STATE AND OUR CITIZENS FOUR GOOD INNOVATIVE ECOMOMIC YEARS.
JANE SMITH PATTERSON BORN IN WILMINGTON, RAISED IN TABOR CITY, LIVED IN MORGANTON, WINSTON SALEM, GREENSBORO, RALEIGH AND CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA. EDUCATED AT WOMAN'S COLLEGE (UNC-GREENSBORO) UNC CHAPEL HILL, NC STATE UNIVERSITY, HARVARD UNIVERSITY KENNEDY SCHOOL AND SERVED TWO YEARS AT UNC WILMINGTON TO ASSIST CHANCELLOR JIM LEUTZE AND OTHERS TO CREATE THE VERY FINE UNC WILMINGTON UNIVERSITY. AT AGE 10, MY FATHER PASSED AWAY IN THE SUMMER AS TOBACCO SEASON BEGAN AND I SPENT THE SUMMER WITH MY BROTHER AND MY MOTHER MANAGING THE FARMS THAT WERE IN NAKINA NORTH CAROLINA. YES, HEAT IN THE FIELDS AND BARNS AND PACK HOUSES WILL CERTIANLY BE EFFECTIVE IN MAKING SURE YOU HAVE A GOOD EDUCATION IN ORDER TO ESCAPE THOSE FIELDS OF HEAT AND CURING TOBACCO IN THE BARNS AND SELLING YOUR GOODS IN THE TOBACCO WAREHOUSES OF NORTH CAROLINA.
I MGHT ADD IT MADE BOTH MY BROTHER LOOK TO THE SCIENCE AND MATH ARENA AS OUR FUTURE CAREERS. DR. ALLIE MAITLAND SMITH RECEIVED THE SECOND TOP AWARD INTERNATIONALLY FOR ROCKETRY LATER IN HIS CAREER WITH NASA AND I WENT ON TO BE VICE-CHAIR OF THE A LEADERSHIP ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLINTON-GORE INITIATIVE ON THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE (internet). YES, FROM SOUTHEASTERN RURAL AND SMALL TOWN NORTH CAROLINA. AND ALSO A STRONG INVOLVEMENT IN THE RISE OF WOMEN AND MINORITIES IN POLITICAL ACTIVITIES. IT WAS TABOR CITY'S TRIBUNE EDITOR HORACE CARTER THAT LED THE FIGHT TO SEE THE KKK MEET JUSTICE FOR ATTACKING OUR BLACK CITIZENS...AND LED ME TO WORK ON EFFORTS FOR WOMEN AND MINORITIES TO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE EXCELLENT GROWTH OF OUR STATE. JANE SMITH PATTERSON CHAPEL HILL, NC.
PREVENT THE KKK FROM HACVING AN IMPOACT NC....TERRIZING OZI
Thomas writes: "If Stein wins by six percent or more, I think it’s very hard for Trump to win the state. Stein’s margin will pull Harris across the line. That’s where the reverse coattails come into play." From your Substack to God's ears!
Robinson's extremist statements -- his latest is to reject federal education funding -- along with those of Superintendent candidate Michelle Morrow, who called for Obama's execution and a pro-Trump military coup -- offend independent voters.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris in Raleigh, Friday unveiled a positive economic agenda focusing on helping the middle class thrive against the rising cost of food, housing, prescription drugs, and child care. The rally is worth watching or listening to, which I did in the car. Plus, I provide economic context since 2020. https://jimbuie.substack.com/p/us-inflation-looks-defeated-soft
I recently heard someone say that Trump is in the Fat Elvis stage of his career!
My 24 year old daughter is moving to Wash DC but she's waiting to get her driver's license and new car registration until November 3rd so that she can vote in NC. Let's hope there are many young people coming home to swing states.
You are correct in noting the momentum toward the Dems in our state, but allow me some quibbles.
I wouldnt put a lot of stock in the Carolina Forward poll as they are a left of center advocacy group, anymore than say Rasmussen which always polls to the right. There are four polls that have come in since Harris' assuming the candidacy, and you only mentioned Cook, specifically in that they show Harris ahead, but the other three still showed Trump ahead so the current RCP aggregate is Trump +2.4.
For the same reason the Carolina Forward showing Stein +10 is suspect and the three non partisan polls has him +4-5 and not really changing. That is some concern as in 2020 Cooper finished +11.0 in the RCP aggregate but only won by +4.4 with a large 6.6 Dem overestimation.
Also, you gave reasonable reasons why the polls might not over estimate the Dems as much as they did in 2016 and 2020, but though speculative I still am leaning to expect the same forces to have some Dem bias.
I have less fear of a massive MAGA revolt when Trump loses. Their majority may be denialists, there’s just too much overlapping evidence (news, social media, conversations in grocery stores and bars) that Trump is losing “it” for many of them to be truly surprised when he loses. (“It” being his focus and the election.). Sure they’ll be damn angry, but it’s increasingly unlikely they will have sufficient numbers and passion for spontaneous combustion on November 5th. But I’ve been wrong before so I’m also saying a prayer.
Great essay. We should be concerned about election deniers. At least we have Joe Biden as president who, thanks to the Supreme Court may do whatever is necessary to guarantee the integrity of the elections. Any actions necessary now have the imprimatur of Immunity for Official Acts. What is a more official act than guaranteeing the fairness of the election.
Thomas, beware of the demonstrations by Palestinian sympathizers in Chicago during the DNC next week. That's not going to help Harris/Walz. As a political pro you are aware that rural (mostly ) white church attendees in NC are pro Israel and will back Donald Trump no matter how rambling and illogical his comments are. As a practicing Jew in a Reform Movement synagogue in Durham (which also has a longer established Conservative/Orthodox Movement synagogue) I know its membership wants an end to the political career of Trump's friend, Benjamin Netanayhu. However, the members will vote overwhelmingly for Harris/Walz and Stein. I will happily celebrate Stein's victory and hope there is enough Democratic turnout to boost Harris. elect Mo Green as Superintendent of Public Instruction, Jeff Jackson Attorney General and remove a few of the Republican super majority NC General Assembly members. Anderson Clayton (NC Dem Party Chairperson) , you have your work cut out for you!
Anderson Clayton (NC Dem Party Chairperson) , you have your work cut out for you!
⬆️
I think she's up for it! The fact that she managed to recruit Democratic candidates for almost all the state and local races DESPITE the extreme gerrymandering here in NC is AMAZING! Rural democrats actually have someone to vote for this year and the chances have never been greater that someone will be knocking on their door to canvass them.
Like Thomas, I am sceptical of polls. But I am a firm believer in the power of grassroots volunteers. I'm in Mecklenburg county and volunteers have been canvassing in Tricia Cotham's newly-drawn house district (HD-105) since February!! Her House district overlaps with NC Senate District 42 where Dem. Woodson Bradley is running against Stacy McGinn, an ultra MAGA supporter of Trump and Mark Robinson. So volunteers get a two-fer when they canvass and we have the potential to break the NC Legislature's GOP supermajority just by getting out the vote in Mecklenburg.
I know that there are also some competitive seats in other blue urban areas in the state, so 🤞the GOP will just end up with a simple majority that will require more that 1 seat to be flipped to give them a super majority!
In addition, the Mecklenburg Dems and the Charlotte chapter of Indivisible are coordinating postcard writing campaigns. Volunteers across the county have volunteered their porches as postcard depots where people can pick up bundles of postcards to write at home or at various postcard writing events. I have written postcards for
* Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) to register new Democratic voters in NC - this is totally on my own, but the others are through the auspices of the local Democrats
* Postcards to Swing States which writes to lower-propensity progressing voters here in NC (and other Swing States and districts) to encourage them to GOTV
* Postcards to HD-105 for Nicole Sidman to complement the canvasses
* Postcards to voters across the state for Mo Green's race against Michele Morrow
* Postcards to voters across the state for Josh Stein - if you sign up at Women for Stein (https://www.joshstein.org/women-for-stein) they will send you a postcard template you can print at home (on Avery blank perforated postcards) along with names & addresses and a script
* and I beilieve we will soon have postcards for Rachel Hunt for Lt. Governor
And of course there are always lots of opportunities to do phonebanking...
Having been inside the RNC 4 years ago I can first hand say the base is juiced on the idea that there is no way the GOP, but especially Trump, cannot legitimately lose an election.
Damn. Those last two paragraphs—nail it. As stated, if in the red repug. bubble, ignoring reality is the modus operandi. So much so. People we all know who know better and are the slick pretenders—how I do stand in wonderment at how their minds work, or rather don’t work. Reminds me of what it’s like teaching when quite bright, capable students resist the critical table turning I used to so artfully do to nudge learners out of smug entitlement. They knew something was up and that did not want any of it and murdered me on end of semester student perception of teaching instrument. All I was doing was shifting responsibility for learning and the intellectual heavy lifting on them. Theoretically speaking. Some would have none of that and preferred me to do all the work and have surplus energy for everyone. Sometimes Honor students or some graduate students were the worst because they thought they already knew it all. Pardon my tangent. Great post. We have some miles to go. ANYTHING can happen.
WOW, HAVING WORKED WITH GOVERNOR JIM H UNT THROUGH HIS ADMINISTRATIONS, AND ALSO HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WATCH JOSH STEIN OPERATE ON A NUMBER OF IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR NORTH CARORLINA CITIZENS, WE ALL SHOULD WANT HIM TO WIN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE. WE NEED TO CONTINUE GOOD GOVERNORS LIKE GOVERNOR ROY COOPER AND GOVERNOR JIM HUNT. A GOVERNOR JOSH STEIN WOULD ALSO SEE A TERRIFIC FOUR YEARS TO CONTINUE NORTH CAROLINA'S LEADERSHIP IN JOBS DEVELOPMENT, IN EDUCATION, IN SUPPORT FOR A GOOD ENVIRONMENT AND JUST FOCUSING ALSO ON MANAGING COST EFFECTOVE GOVERNMENT OPEARATIONS. STEIN'S WOULD GIVE US AS A STATE AND OUR CITIZENS FOUR GOOD INNOVATIVE ECOMOMIC YEARS.
JANE SMITH PATTERSON BORN IN WILMINGTON, RAISED IN TABOR CITY, LIVED IN MORGANTON, WINSTON SALEM, GREENSBORO, RALEIGH AND CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA. EDUCATED AT WOMAN'S COLLEGE (UNC-GREENSBORO) UNC CHAPEL HILL, NC STATE UNIVERSITY, HARVARD UNIVERSITY KENNEDY SCHOOL AND SERVED TWO YEARS AT UNC WILMINGTON TO ASSIST CHANCELLOR JIM LEUTZE AND OTHERS TO CREATE THE VERY FINE UNC WILMINGTON UNIVERSITY. AT AGE 10, MY FATHER PASSED AWAY IN THE SUMMER AS TOBACCO SEASON BEGAN AND I SPENT THE SUMMER WITH MY BROTHER AND MY MOTHER MANAGING THE FARMS THAT WERE IN NAKINA NORTH CAROLINA. YES, HEAT IN THE FIELDS AND BARNS AND PACK HOUSES WILL CERTIANLY BE EFFECTIVE IN MAKING SURE YOU HAVE A GOOD EDUCATION IN ORDER TO ESCAPE THOSE FIELDS OF HEAT AND CURING TOBACCO IN THE BARNS AND SELLING YOUR GOODS IN THE TOBACCO WAREHOUSES OF NORTH CAROLINA.
I MGHT ADD IT MADE BOTH MY BROTHER LOOK TO THE SCIENCE AND MATH ARENA AS OUR FUTURE CAREERS. DR. ALLIE MAITLAND SMITH RECEIVED THE SECOND TOP AWARD INTERNATIONALLY FOR ROCKETRY LATER IN HIS CAREER WITH NASA AND I WENT ON TO BE VICE-CHAIR OF THE A LEADERSHIP ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLINTON-GORE INITIATIVE ON THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE (internet). YES, FROM SOUTHEASTERN RURAL AND SMALL TOWN NORTH CAROLINA. AND ALSO A STRONG INVOLVEMENT IN THE RISE OF WOMEN AND MINORITIES IN POLITICAL ACTIVITIES. IT WAS TABOR CITY'S TRIBUNE EDITOR HORACE CARTER THAT LED THE FIGHT TO SEE THE KKK MEET JUSTICE FOR ATTACKING OUR BLACK CITIZENS...AND LED ME TO WORK ON EFFORTS FOR WOMEN AND MINORITIES TO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE EXCELLENT GROWTH OF OUR STATE. JANE SMITH PATTERSON CHAPEL HILL, NC.
PREVENT THE KKK FROM HACVING AN IMPOACT NC....TERRIZING OZI
Excellent!
Thomas writes: "If Stein wins by six percent or more, I think it’s very hard for Trump to win the state. Stein’s margin will pull Harris across the line. That’s where the reverse coattails come into play." From your Substack to God's ears!
Robinson's extremist statements -- his latest is to reject federal education funding -- along with those of Superintendent candidate Michelle Morrow, who called for Obama's execution and a pro-Trump military coup -- offend independent voters.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris in Raleigh, Friday unveiled a positive economic agenda focusing on helping the middle class thrive against the rising cost of food, housing, prescription drugs, and child care. The rally is worth watching or listening to, which I did in the car. Plus, I provide economic context since 2020. https://jimbuie.substack.com/p/us-inflation-looks-defeated-soft
I recently heard someone say that Trump is in the Fat Elvis stage of his career!
My 24 year old daughter is moving to Wash DC but she's waiting to get her driver's license and new car registration until November 3rd so that she can vote in NC. Let's hope there are many young people coming home to swing states.
You are correct in noting the momentum toward the Dems in our state, but allow me some quibbles.
I wouldnt put a lot of stock in the Carolina Forward poll as they are a left of center advocacy group, anymore than say Rasmussen which always polls to the right. There are four polls that have come in since Harris' assuming the candidacy, and you only mentioned Cook, specifically in that they show Harris ahead, but the other three still showed Trump ahead so the current RCP aggregate is Trump +2.4.
For the same reason the Carolina Forward showing Stein +10 is suspect and the three non partisan polls has him +4-5 and not really changing. That is some concern as in 2020 Cooper finished +11.0 in the RCP aggregate but only won by +4.4 with a large 6.6 Dem overestimation.
Also, you gave reasonable reasons why the polls might not over estimate the Dems as much as they did in 2016 and 2020, but though speculative I still am leaning to expect the same forces to have some Dem bias.
I have less fear of a massive MAGA revolt when Trump loses. Their majority may be denialists, there’s just too much overlapping evidence (news, social media, conversations in grocery stores and bars) that Trump is losing “it” for many of them to be truly surprised when he loses. (“It” being his focus and the election.). Sure they’ll be damn angry, but it’s increasingly unlikely they will have sufficient numbers and passion for spontaneous combustion on November 5th. But I’ve been wrong before so I’m also saying a prayer.
Bill, I remain meditative, actively prayer about “it” all.
Great essay. We should be concerned about election deniers. At least we have Joe Biden as president who, thanks to the Supreme Court may do whatever is necessary to guarantee the integrity of the elections. Any actions necessary now have the imprimatur of Immunity for Official Acts. What is a more official act than guaranteeing the fairness of the election.
Thomas, beware of the demonstrations by Palestinian sympathizers in Chicago during the DNC next week. That's not going to help Harris/Walz. As a political pro you are aware that rural (mostly ) white church attendees in NC are pro Israel and will back Donald Trump no matter how rambling and illogical his comments are. As a practicing Jew in a Reform Movement synagogue in Durham (which also has a longer established Conservative/Orthodox Movement synagogue) I know its membership wants an end to the political career of Trump's friend, Benjamin Netanayhu. However, the members will vote overwhelmingly for Harris/Walz and Stein. I will happily celebrate Stein's victory and hope there is enough Democratic turnout to boost Harris. elect Mo Green as Superintendent of Public Instruction, Jeff Jackson Attorney General and remove a few of the Republican super majority NC General Assembly members. Anderson Clayton (NC Dem Party Chairperson) , you have your work cut out for you!
Anderson Clayton (NC Dem Party Chairperson) , you have your work cut out for you!
⬆️
I think she's up for it! The fact that she managed to recruit Democratic candidates for almost all the state and local races DESPITE the extreme gerrymandering here in NC is AMAZING! Rural democrats actually have someone to vote for this year and the chances have never been greater that someone will be knocking on their door to canvass them.
Like Thomas, I am sceptical of polls. But I am a firm believer in the power of grassroots volunteers. I'm in Mecklenburg county and volunteers have been canvassing in Tricia Cotham's newly-drawn house district (HD-105) since February!! Her House district overlaps with NC Senate District 42 where Dem. Woodson Bradley is running against Stacy McGinn, an ultra MAGA supporter of Trump and Mark Robinson. So volunteers get a two-fer when they canvass and we have the potential to break the NC Legislature's GOP supermajority just by getting out the vote in Mecklenburg.
I know that there are also some competitive seats in other blue urban areas in the state, so 🤞the GOP will just end up with a simple majority that will require more that 1 seat to be flipped to give them a super majority!
In addition, the Mecklenburg Dems and the Charlotte chapter of Indivisible are coordinating postcard writing campaigns. Volunteers across the county have volunteered their porches as postcard depots where people can pick up bundles of postcards to write at home or at various postcard writing events. I have written postcards for
* Field Team 6 (www.fieldteam6.org) to register new Democratic voters in NC - this is totally on my own, but the others are through the auspices of the local Democrats
* Postcards to Swing States which writes to lower-propensity progressing voters here in NC (and other Swing States and districts) to encourage them to GOTV
* Postcards to HD-105 for Nicole Sidman to complement the canvasses
* Postcards to voters across the state for Mo Green's race against Michele Morrow
* Postcards to voters across the state for Josh Stein - if you sign up at Women for Stein (https://www.joshstein.org/women-for-stein) they will send you a postcard template you can print at home (on Avery blank perforated postcards) along with names & addresses and a script
* and I beilieve we will soon have postcards for Rachel Hunt for Lt. Governor
And of course there are always lots of opportunities to do phonebanking...
https://www.mobilize.us/?event_type=2&is_virtual=true&q=North%20Carolina
Having been inside the RNC 4 years ago I can first hand say the base is juiced on the idea that there is no way the GOP, but especially Trump, cannot legitimately lose an election.
Damn. Those last two paragraphs—nail it. As stated, if in the red repug. bubble, ignoring reality is the modus operandi. So much so. People we all know who know better and are the slick pretenders—how I do stand in wonderment at how their minds work, or rather don’t work. Reminds me of what it’s like teaching when quite bright, capable students resist the critical table turning I used to so artfully do to nudge learners out of smug entitlement. They knew something was up and that did not want any of it and murdered me on end of semester student perception of teaching instrument. All I was doing was shifting responsibility for learning and the intellectual heavy lifting on them. Theoretically speaking. Some would have none of that and preferred me to do all the work and have surplus energy for everyone. Sometimes Honor students or some graduate students were the worst because they thought they already knew it all. Pardon my tangent. Great post. We have some miles to go. ANYTHING can happen.
Great writing as always, Thomas! Hope all is well in CH.