In the minds of the Stein campaign

A podcast with interviews of Stein's campaign leadership team offers insight into the mentality of running against Mark Robinson.

The Pro Politics podcast has a great episode out for anybody interested in North Carolina politics. Zac McCrary, who hosts the podcast, is a pollster with Impact Research. He interviews Josh Stein’s lead strategist, Morgan Jackson, and Stein’s campaign manager, Jeff Allen, to give an inside look at the governor’s race here. Stein won by the largest margin in recent history in a state that also went to Donald Trump.

As I listened to the podcast, I realized a few things about the campaign and North Carolina that made a difference in ways that can’t be measured. The strategic team’s roots were probably deeper than any race in the country. McCrary’s firm, Impact Strategies, served as the pollster for Stein. Their founder, John Anzalone, was Joe Biden’s chief strategist and has been polling in North Carolina for almost thirty years. Same with their direct mail consultant, Pete Giangreco, who was part of Obama’s inner circle since before his presidential years.

Anzalone and Giangreco started working with North Carolina Senate Democrats in 1996 and have been working with at least of one of the legislative caucuses ever since. They not only understand the big picture of the state, they understand the nuance in the various regions of North Carolina. The experience of working with legislative districts gives them unique insight into the complex politics of the state that firms who show up for a cycle or two never gain.

Jackson is literally a second generation North Carolina political operative. His father, Elvin Jackson, was Congressman Bill Hefner’s chief political advisor. I knew Elvin before I knew Morgan and he had on impact on my understanding of politics, especially in small towns and rural areas. Morgan has grown up in the midst of North Carolina’s evolving political landscape and brings an innate understanding of North Carolina that comes from being a native.

Combined, Stein’s team brought a perspective that could only be gained by working the politics of North Carolina year-in and year-out for decades.

The other thought I had about the podcast had to do with races that weren’t at the top of the ticket. Jackson says that the collapse of Robinson’s campaign early gave them an opportunity to focus on down-ballot races. North Carolina Democrats gained Council of State seats, broke the Republican’s veto-proof majority in the state House, won a Supreme Court seat, and protected one the most competitive Congressional seats in the country. Shifting resources and priorities likely got those Democrats across the line in November.

It’s why money matters in politics and why television is still the most powerful tool, even if its influence is waning. Lieutenant Governor-elect Rachel Hunt, Attorney General-elect Jeff Jackson, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and Superintendent of Public Instruction-elect Mo Green all won their seats because they had the money to go up on TV where they portrayed their opponents as extremists, often tied to Robinson. In the five Council of State races that Democrats lost, the candidates lacked the resources to communicate a message that could move the needle with the persuadable voters. Left to their own devices, North Carolina swing voters break for Republicans, but even a little communication can persuade them to support Democrats. It’s why we’re one of the most competitive states in the country.

Television is the most powerful tool in politics because it still reaches the largest audience, even if it’s only a plurality, and still has the power to wash over its audience, delivering a message even if those watching are almost unaware of the impact. Other mediums require an intellectual connection—choosing to read or deciding to click.

The TV audience is older with a higher propensity to vote. I suspect more than 75%, and maybe 80%, of registered voters over 50 years old voted in November. The vast majority of those people still have cable or broadcast television in their houses. I suspect it’s especially prevalent in rural North Carolina where fewer people are “cutting the cord” and only watching streaming services. As Jackson says, to win in North Carolina, Democrats need to hold their margins in rural areas instead of hemorrhaging votes. Television is the tool with the power to reach those voters that allowed down-ballot Democrats to win.

If there’s any take-away, it’s that Democrats should start to look at funds to support the other Council of State races now if they want to win the more obscure statewide races in 2028. A push, even a slight one, might give them control of seats like Treasurer or Commissioner of Insurance.

If I had one quibble with their assessment of the governor’s race, it’s their description of Robinson’s strengths. While he certainly had some advantages, they disappeared fairly quickly and predictably. I never believed he would become governor. He fit the profile of extremist Republican candidates who have historically lost statewide races in North Carolina, except that he was, by far, the most extreme. Robinson was probably the most flawed top-of-the-ticket candidate I’ve seen in North Carolina politics. I never doubted that the Stein team would find the right hits on Robinson and I knew they would define him early. They all understood the race long before it actually started.

Anyway, take a listen for yourself. The podcast gives good insight into the thinking of the strategists on the Stein campaign and offers insight into the personalities of the North Carolina political players.