How Helene affects the election in North Carolina

Washed out roads and the collapse of Asheville's water system could impact voting.

Credit: FEMA

Since Hurricane Helene devastated much of Western North Carolina, I’ve had a lot of people ask how the disaster is going to impact the presidential election. I don’t think there’s a good way to know. The legislature went back into session yesterday to make voting more accessible to people in twenty-five counties that were declared federal disaster areas. They also approved $250 million in aid to the region but most of the recovery will happen after the election.

Several factors will determine how the storm affects the election. Some people have found themselves homeless after creeks and rivers washed away or flooded their homes. Earlier this week, more than 1,000 people were staying in shelters. Roads throughout the mountains are still impassable and won’t be fixed or replaced by Election Day. Other communities, including much of Asheville, still lack water. People in the disaster zones have left the area and many may not be back before the election. Finally, perceptions of the recovery efforts could shape the way people think about the government and elections.

While the legislature and state board of elections expanded options for voting, allowing for extended time to return absentee ballots and giving counties permission to set up voting sites outside of affected precincts, those efforts might not be enough get some people to the polls. People who are largely stranded may not be thinking too much about the election and the difficulty of getting in or out of their communities might be enough to dissuade them from making the effort. Remote areas tend to be more Republican so a dip in voting could hurt the GOP.

In Asheville, a Democratic stronghold, water is still not available to most of the residents. According the City of Asheville web site, they may not have water for weeks. A lot of people have left the city to stay in places where they do have access to water. UNC-Asheville is closed until the end the month and then offering remote classes, so most of the students have left town. If water is not restored before Election Day a lot of people might not be in town to vote.

The accessibility and water issues could prove to be a wash (no pun intended). Buncombe, where Asheville is located, had about 160,000 voters in 2020 and went for Joe Biden by about 20%. The more rural counties that were hit hard are much smaller and solidly Republican. Mitchell County, where Spruce Pine is located, had fewer than 10,000 voters but supported Trump by almost 60% in 2020. Fewer people will likely leave the rural counties than will leave Buncombe, but accessibility problems may prove greater in more remote regions where meeting basic needs like accessing food and water take precedent over getting to the polls.

Perceptions of the recovery could also impact the election. Trump, some Republican politicians, and right-wing media outlets are trying to make the recovery effort a political issue. The longer people are without necessities like water and power, the more frustrated they will get. There’s a narrative in some communities that the government hasn’t been there at all, despite a lot of evidence to the contrary. It might drive people to vote against Biden, but I suspect the people both pushing and believing that story were planning to vote for Trump anyway.

On the other hand, I’ve read stories of people thankful for National Guard and active duty personnel delivering supplies, most of which are brought to the area by FEMA. People and communities who have received help could find themselves grateful for the support of state and federal agencies. They might feel grateful enough to cast a ballot for the party in power.

In the state as a whole, assume the race is tied and Helene makes any more polling here unreliable. In 2020, Trump had a very favorable turnout in North Carolina that was older and whiter than the electorate as a whole and he still won by less than 75,000 votes out of 5.5 million cast. Unlike other states where the former president seems to have a ceiling of 47 or 48 percent, he received almost 50% of the vote in North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020. Most of those voters will probably stick with him this year, but he doesn’t have much room to grow. Losing rural voters in the mountains could cut into his margin when he can’t afford to lose much.

For Harris to win here, she will have to change the electorate, making it more favorable to her by pushing out younger and African American voters. Overall, the electorate in North Carolina is shifting toward Democrats. Since the 2020 election, the state has grown by about 400,000 people, almost 70% of whom are Black or brown people. Those new voters should cut into Trump’s margin by a bit, but Harris will still need to find an additional 50,000 or so voters to beat him. She won’t be able to count on Asheville to help in that effort.

Helene’s impact on the election in North Carolina is really uncertain. It could hurt either Harris or Trump. People leaving Asheville because of a lack of water will cut into Harris’s votes. A drop in turnout in rural areas where roads and bridges make reaching town more difficult could hurt Trump with his base. Other factors that could affect the outcome as much as the hurricane are the collapse of Mark Robinson’s campaign and the shift in suburban voters towards Democrats. Regardless, nobody’s winning North Carolina in a blowout besides Josh Stein.