Flipping the script

Republicans are spending money to influence the Democratic primary for attorney general

In 2022, Democrats spent heavily in Republican primaries to help nominate candidates that they believed would be easier to beat. In numerous Congressional and gubernatorial primaries, Democrats boosted often poorly funded candidates by highlighting extremist positions that appealed to the GOP base but alienated moderate and independent voters. It worked and played a small role in preventing the GOP wave that so many predicted.

In North Carolina, Republicans are flipping the script and playing in the Democratic primary for attorney general in North Carolina. A dark money group called And Justice for All is reportedly spending at least $1 million pushing the candidacy of Durham District Attorney Satana Deberry. She’s running in the primary against U.S. Representative Jeff Jackson and Fayetteville attorney Tim Dunn. The winner will face Congressman Dan Bishop in the general election in November.

Jackson has been seen as the frontrunner in the race. He served several terms in the state senate before being elected to Congress in 2022. He’s built a large and powerful social media presence that has helped him raise more than $1.8 million in the primary. He briefly ran for U.S. Senate in 2022, visiting all 100 counties and earning himself a devoted following.

Deberry announced her bid in December, shortly before the campaign filing period and has raised only $31,000. She’s an impressive leader, but, until now, was not well-known outside of Durham. The dark money campaign gives her a boost in name recognition that she couldn’t buy with the money she’s raised. It also lets Democratic primary voters know that there’s a Black woman in the race. The primary electorate will be roughly 60% women and 40% African Americans.

According to news reports, the ads are touting Deberry as the “real progressive” in the race. While I have not found the ads on the internet, WFAE says they state, “As Durham District Attorney she worked to end inequity and racial bias in the system. As attorney general, she will fight to make the system more transparent, lower incarceration rates and break the cycle of crime.” That’s a pretty good message to a Democratic primary audience, but a lousy one for a general election electorate.

The GOP affiliated group believes Deberry would be easier to beat because of her progressive positions. They’re right. North Carolina is a center-right state where moderate politicians from both sides have been more successful than self-proclaimed progressives. In a general election where crime is likely to be at least a subtext during the campaign, Deberry’s positions on ending cash bail and an emphasis on racial equity probably puts her at odds with a majority of North Carolinians.

Jackson is the stronger general election candidate. He’s proven that he can raise money and he’s got a significant following across the state that he built. He’s shown a savvy ability to leverage social media as an educational tool and drawn national attention for his explainer videos describing what’s happening in Washington. He comes across as practical and moderate. If he’s the nominee, the campaign will focus more Dan Bishop’s extreme positions than on Jackson. If the Deberry is the nominee, the election will focus on her more controversial progressive positions.

Could the dark money campaign be successful? Yes. In a low-turn out primary where most voters know little about either candidate, $1 million is enough to influence the outcome, especially if it’s narrowly targeted and spent efficiently. With three candidates, a winner only needs 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff. A week or so of TV is enough to influence an audience that will be older than the overall electorate.

Jackson probably should be spending some of his war chest to secure the nomination. Around half of the voters will cast their ballot on election day and they are the most persuadable so there’s still time to influence them. Nothing is more frustrating than losing a primary with a full bank account.