Down ballot races and dueling polls

A look at the more obscure Council of State races and conflict in polling numbers

Tomorrow is primary day here in North Carolina. Voters will determine nominees for the two major parties for council of state offices, Congress, legislature, and local offices. The most high profile races in both parties are the contests for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, but North Carolina has a total of ten council of state seats, including more obscure offices like auditor, commissioner of labor and commissioner of insurance.

In the race to be the Democratic nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction, Mo Green brings a level of experience that’s pretty much unmatched. Not only has he served as superintendent of the Guilford County schools, one the largest systems in the state, he was executive director of Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, a major charitable organization that has funded education initiatives for decades. He’s also an attorney who worked for the Mecklenburg County school system before taking the helm in Guilford. Green is widely respected in education circles and brings solid administrative experience to the job. I can’t really see someone more qualified for the position. If he wins, which I expect he will, Green will probably face Republican incumbent Catherine Truitt who faces a minor primary opponent.

In the open state treasurer’s race, the Democratic primary is between state Representative Wesley Harris and businessman Gabe Esparza. Harris is an economist whose legislative experience could be helpful in dealing with state government. Esparza has worked for multinational companies and the small business administration. Both would probably serve the state well.

In the Commissioner of Insurance primary, state Senator Natasha Marcus faces Democratic activist David Wheeler. While Wheeler did some good work exposing Madison Cawthorn, he seems more of a regional activist. He’s got solid business experience and has been active in his community, but he doesn’t have much experience at the state level. Natasha Marcus was elected to the Senate in the 2018 Democratic wave from Mecklenburg County. Like Wheeler, she has a background of activism in her community, but she’s also got solid experience in state government. She’s been a leader in the Democratic caucus and has a law degree from Duke, experience that would certainly be beneficial as Commissioner of Insurance. Marcus seems to have the experience, qualifications, and temperament for the job.

In the Republican primaries, three candidates are vying for the Treasure’s job. Conservative activist A. J. Daoud, who has run for office several times in the past, has thrown his hat in the ring. Rachel Johnson, wife of former Superintendent of Public Instruction, is also in the race. Finally, Brad Briner, a retired business executive, seems to be the most establishment type in the race. Briner’s slogan, as much as it is one, is “Profits not politics,” indicating he will take more of business approach than an ideological approach to managing the state’s money.

Republicans have a slew of people running for state auditor. To me, two stand out for the their experience in state government. Dave Boliek has been chair of the UNC Board of Trustees and served on numerous boards related to the school’s financial management. He’s also worked in a district attorney’s office and as a lawyer in private practice.

Jeff Tarte served in legislature for years and was always a common sense, good government Republican. He’s got a long history of both public service and private sector management experience.

I suspect both Boliek and Tarte are looking to serve the state more than push any ideological agenda or using nthe position as a stepping stone to higher office. I can’t say that about the other candidates. That said, my bias is toward Tarte because I am sure that he’s acting in good faith, even if I might disagree with some of his positions. I suspect Boliek is, too, but I haven’t followed his career as closely.

In the GOP race for Commissioner of Labor, four candidates are vying to face Democrat Braxton Winston in November. State Representative Jon Hardister seems to be the heir-apparent to Commissioner Josh Dobson who decided against running for re-election. I don’t know anything about the other three, but if Hardister uses the network he has through the legislature, he should win the nomination.

The GOP commissioner insurance primary has two people who will probably lose to incumbent Mike Causey. I don’t know anything about any of them, so I won’t venture much of a guess. I just think Causey has a clear advantage.

In the GOP primary for Secretary of State, three Republicans are trying to decide which one will lose to Elaine Marshall in November. The only one I know anything about is Christine Villaverde who spends most of her day pandering to the MAGA base on social media and trying to desperately to make herself out to be an extreme Trump sycophant. I just want her to go away because she is so tiresome and predictable.

On another note, two polls are out with some conflicting information about Democratic primary races. Carolina Forward and High Point University released polls last week that show different results, particularly in the Democratic primary for attorney general. They use different methods of testing their audiences.

First, let me say something about polls in general. Before polling got to be so ubiquitous, polls were a random sample of the audience they were trying to test. We had land lines and not too many outfits were doing polling. Most people never received a polling call. Technology changed all of that

Now, pollsters are taking a random sample of people who answer polls, not of the general public or likely voters or registered voters. They use weighting and other magic to approximate the real audience they are trying to measure. Some pollsters are better at it than others.

I’m very dubious of head-to-head polls where relatively small differences matter a lot. In issue polls, percentages are less important than trends. For instance, we can determine that inflation is the most pressing problem for voters and actual the percentage of people who say that doesn’t matter too much, just that it’s significantly more than other issues facing the electorate. Campaigns should have something to say about the most pressing issues.

Primary polls are difficult because the electorate is more narrow and pollsters have to determine who is more likely to vote. The lower the turnout, the more difficult the projection. This year, the primary turnout looks to be middling, not too high, but not pathetic, either.

Back to the two conflicting polls. One, done by Carolina Forward, is an online poll of more than 1,600 people. My problem with that poll is that it didn’t test all of the people running. It just listed front runners. That said, it gives Josh Stein a solid lead over Mike Morgan in the Democratic primary of 46-7 with 47% undecided. In the attorney general race, Jeff Jackson leads Satana Deberry 37-13 with 51% undecided.

The High Point University poll is also online with over 1,200 respondents. It differs in that it tests all of the candidates but doesn’t appear to give an “undecided” option. I don’t like that, either. Like the Carolina Forward survey, the poll shows Josh Stein with a commanding lead, 57%, over his nearest contender, Morgan, who has 14%. Unlike the Carolina Forward survey, the HPU poll shows the AG race within the margin of error with all three candidates, Jackson, Deberry, and attorney Tim Dunn, with about a third each. Jackson is at 36%, Dunn 33%, Deberry 31%.

It could just be that one of the polls is wrong. It could be that when a third candidate is added and respondents are pushed to choose their favorite, those are the numbers. That scenario indicates that Jackson tops out in the upper 30s. Still, he would win without facing a runoff.

The poll also might show Deberry momentum since the HPU poll was completed after the Carolina Forward poll, but that doesn’t explain Dunn’s numbers. Money is being put behind Deberry and she could be gaining momentum, especially if a lot of those voters are really undecided and not strongly committed to Jackson or Dunn. If that’s what’s happening, she had another 10 days or so to grow which would make the race a nail-biter.

Both polls indicate that the gubernatorial race in November will be between Stein and Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. Both indicate that Jeff Jackson was the favorite in the attorney general primary ten days to two weeks before the election. One indicates that it’s more fluid than the other. Somebody is about to have both bragging rights and we’re about to figure out if late money makes a difference in a relatively obscure primary.

If you haven’t voted yet, clear your calendar for tomorrow.