Don't sleep on North Carolina

Harris is rebuilding the 2008 Obama coalition that won the state.

Before I get to my main point, I need to address all of those Republicans and conservatives criticizing Democrats for having “segregated” fundraisers for Kamala Harris. When both your party membership and party leadership reflect the diversity of America, you can hold fundraisers called “White Dudes for Harris” or “Win with Black Women” and nobody thinks you’re racist. When your party could fit all of the Black Women for Trump on an iPhone merge call, you can’t.

Democrats celebrate our diversity. Republicans expect minorities to fall in line and assimilate into what they perceive as the dominant (i.e., white) culture. That’s the difference.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled blog.

A new Bloomberg poll shows that Kamala Harris is within the margin of error against Donald Trump in North Carolina. She trails by just two points after Biden trailed in the state by as much as ten points before he left the race. Harris is reconstituting the Obama coalition that carried North Carolina in 2008. She could do it again.

Obama won here by motivating African American and younger voters to turnout at levels never seen before—or since. His coalition was different from the one Biden built and more suited to a state like ours. In 2020, Biden peeled off non-college working class white voters that eluded Hillary Clinton, but African American turnout fell, at least in North Carolina, to its lowest level since before Obama’s election. Still, Biden lost the state by less than 75,000 votes, or about 1.3%. In contrast, Clinton lost in 2016 by 3.4%.

In 2020, turnout among African Americans fell to 68% compared to 73% turnout in 2008. In addition, voters between 18 and 25 turned out at 64% in 2008 and only 60% in 2020. If these two groups had performed at 2008 levels in 2020, Biden would have likely won North Carolina. With the ascension of Harris to the top of the ticket, these two groups of voters appear to be among the most motivated by her candidacy.

In 2020, Trump probably reached his apex in North Carolina. He won in the state with a turnout among Republicans of 82% and a turnout of 84% among voters over 65 years old. I don’t think he has any room for growth in North Carolina’s electorate.

The political environment has probably deteriorated a bit for Trump since 2020. The Dobbs decision altered the political terrain, especially for women and younger voters. His convictions may have angered his base, but they are probably hurting him with more moderate swing voters. In 2020, he won about 55% of the unaffiliated voters in the state. With a margin of just 75,000 in 2020 he can’t afford to lose any of those voters this year, especially with more motivated African American and young voters.

Finally, North Carolina Democrats have a stellar ticket of statewide candidates. Most of the council of state candidates are battle-tested political veterans with impressive records. The statewide judicial candidates led by Supreme Court candidate Allison Riggs are campaigning across the state to rave reviews and solid crowds. Nobody will be a drag on the Democratic ticket.

In contrast, Republicans have recruited a slate of reprobates and weirdos to represent their party. Their gubernatorial candidate is both corrupt and bigoted. His family business is under investigation for fraud and he’s called members of the LGBT+ community “filth.” Their superintendent of public instruction nominee is a Qanon conspiracy nut. Their attorney general candidate is one of the most extreme members of Congress who voted to shut down government, promoted the Big Lie, and who funded a white supremacist web site. They have so much baggage, it’s hard to know where to start.

National Democrats and the Harris campaign need to keep the pressure on North Carolina. They have a real chance to win the state as Harris re-energizes the Obama coalition. Motivated African Americans and young voters can put her over the top. Women voters concerned about their health care can add to the margin. Mainstream conservatives who still have some values might just stay home instead of holding their noses and voting for the miscreants the GOP has nominated. Don’t sleep on North Carolina.