An update on the political environment as Trump's criminal trials begin
April has been a good month for Democrats so far
Happy Trump Trial Week—again! Trump has already lost a civil suit that concluded that he’s a sexual abuser. Now, he’s facing criminal charges that claim he paid off a porn star to coverup a sexual tryst that might have damaged his 2016 campaign. Trump is not denying the affair, which took place while his wife, Melania, was home with his newborn son, but he’s just denying that the $130,000 payment was illegal.
Today’s trial is the first of four criminal trials Trump will face and the first ever for an American ex-president. Pundits and analysts believe the outcome of the trials could change the trajectory of the campaign. They will shine a light on Trump’s misdeeds in a way that cable news and Trump rallies can’t. People will see court proceedings guided by judicial rules enforced by a judge. They will get a clearer picture of the truth even if Trump loyalists lack the critical thinking skills to see clearly.
So, let’s take this opportunity to see where the election cycle stands, particularly as it pertains to North Carolina. Up until very recently, most stories have focused on Joe Biden’s weaknesses. Trump has led in polls, specifically in the swing states that will determine the outcome of the election.
In reality, polls aren’t offering much of a glimpse of the election. November is too far away and the electorate is too fickle. While they may be able to provide broad strokes about the mood of the electorate, they are in no way predictive. The best we can glean is that the election will be close, something we should all know by now.
That said, polling has shown the public to be broadly dissatisfied with the state of our politics. They don’t really like their choices for president. While unemployment is at historic lows and wages are rising steadily, inflation is persistent and irritating. Pricing aren’t increasing at the rate they were a year ago, but inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, making cuts to interest rates unlikely in the near-term.
Wars in Ukraine and Israel seem to be shifting from a main event in the national political psyche to a persistent irritant to the electorate. Neither will go away but neither is likely to drive the election. Fair or not, those conflicts are probably hurting Biden, though the GOP’s unwillingness to support our allies may be hurting them as well, making it more of a wash. Politically, foreign affairs rarely drives the electorate as long U.S. troops are not on the ground.
Biden successfully put to rest the narrative about his age. While it could certainly come up again, especially with an inopportune stumble either physically or verbally, his State of the Union address satisfied concerns about his mental acuity. Meanwhile, his campaign is pushing video clips questioning Trump’s cognitive state. The goal is to make age a non-issue, if for no other reason than both candidates are old and neither has a mental advantage.
A New York Times poll this weekend has Democrats feeling better about their chances, too. The poll shows Trump with a one-point lead and the Democratic base starting to come home. Another AP poll shows that Biden holds an eleven point margin among voters most likely to show up on election day. That’s consistent with the outcomes of special elections where the most committed voters turnout. If the trials demoralize less enthusiastic Trump voters, a dampened turnout will help Biden. It’s a big change from when Democrats believed that higher turnout always benefited them.
In North Carolina, Mark Robinson’s troubles may finally be catching up with him. A Quinnipiac Poll last week showed Josh Stein leading Robinson by eight points. As I have said, be dubious but Stein has consistently held a small lead in the race and Robinson is combatting a barrage of bad press that ranges from urging parents to discipline their children by “beat[ing] them in a circle” to failure to pay taxes to urging a total ban on abortion. The Stein campaign is defining Robinson early and putting Republicans who must run with him in a difficult position.
The poll also showed Biden and Trump neck-and-neck with Trump up by one point. That indicates the poll may be little too favorable to Democrats but if more polls show the gap closing, it could be the beginning of a trend, though one that could easily reverse course before the fall. Still, the environment right now feels difficult for Republicans in the state.
So far, April has been a good month for Democrats. Winter was depressing with Trump’s lead in the polls looking pretty rigid. That’s changing and while I urge you not to hang on poll numbers, the political environment right now is better for Democrats, especially in North Carolina. That could change on a dime, though, so don’t get comfortable and don’t live and die by polls.
Two topics deserve two paragraphs, perhaps with commentary about why polarization has gotten this bad. Partisan gerrymanders + other methods have rendered almost every district in the country NON-COMPETITIVE. Races are won in a handful of districts in a few swing states. It’s ridiculous! That’s NOT a representative government.
Plurality voting / first past the post devolves to this duopoly in which politicians are incentives to attack one another. All they need is 30% of an extremist base and they can get elected! We need ranked choice voting, proportional representations, open primaries. If Michigan joins, we could pass the National Popular Vote. Maine just did.
“That said, polling has shown the public to be broadly dissatisfied with the state of our politics. They don’t really like their choices for president. While unemployment is at historic lows and wages are rising steadily, inflation is persistent and irritating. Pricing aren’t increasing at the rate they were a year ago, but inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, making cuts to interest rates unlikely in the near-term.”
Let's take the polls as a morale booster; one that invigorates us to work for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. November victories are at hand if everybody does what they can to get our voters to the polls – a much better option than sitting around feeling sorry for ourselves as if there's nothing we can do to save our Democracy from the tyrany of the GOP.