An update on North Carolina's governor race

Stein and Robinson seem headed for their party's nominations

In 2024, the North Carolina governor’s race will be one the most closely watched gubernatorial contests in the nation. Control of the Governor’s Mansion will determine whether Republicans control all three branches of government or whether a Democratic governor’s veto and power of appointment will provide some checks on the hard right turn the state has taken. Democrats have mostly controlled the executive branch in the post-one-party era, but Republicans have made in-roads in statewide races, controlling both U.S. Senate seats and holding a majority of Council of State seats. Consequently, the race will be the most expensive gubernatorial race in state history.

On the Democratic side, Attorney General Josh Stein has been an announced candidate since January. In September, former Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan announced he was entering the primary. So far, Stein has dominated the race, securing endorsements from most top Democrats, including popular incumbent Governor Roy Cooper. He’s also raised over $11 million as of June 30 and had more than $8 million cash on hand. That’s a staggering amount of money a year from the election.

Stein has won two terms as attorney general when Trump carried the state. While his margins were narrow, 24,000 in 2016 and 14,000 in 2020, he’s battle-tested. He’s also got a solid, progressive record as attorney general. He’s sued pharmaceutical companies over opioid marketing and established a fund to combat and treat opioid addiction. He’s refused to defend the GOP legislature’s unconstitutional restrictions on abortions. He’s stood up for voting rights. Like Cooper before him, he can use his record as attorney general to show he’s ready to take the reins of state government.

Morgan, for his part, has yet to make a case for his candidacy. He has an impressive record as a judge and is a widely respected as a jurist, but he’s never held an executive position. He will need to offer voters a reason that he is a better choice than Stein to lead the Democratic ticket. He will also need the resources to make that case. So far, he has not done that and his candidacy has been very quiet.

If Morgan, who is African American, has a path to victory in the primary, it’s consolidating the Black vote, which will make up about 40% of the primary electorate, and winning a large enough slice of White progressives to give him a lead over Stein. That’s a hard task with an underfunded campaign. The next two months will determine whether Morgan secures the resources to be competitive.

On the Republican side, the primary GOP candidates are Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson and state Treasurer Dale Folwell. After the legislature drew new districts, former Congressman Mark Walker announced he’s running for Congress instead of governor. Robinson is the frontrunner, having established himself as a Trump disciple who throws verbal bombs on a regular basis. He’s cast himself as a Christian nationalist who revels in making disparaging remarks about the LGBTQ community, Jews, immigrants, and anyone else he considers “woke.” He’s consolidated the GOP base and raised a boatload of money off of the bigot wing of the party. He garnered $2.2 million in the first half of 2023 and had $3.2 million on hand as of June 30.

Folwell seems to have announced his candidacy largely as an alternative to Robinson. He’s a Republican in the tradition of the old Reagan wing of the party. He’s been a responsible steward of state money and believes in fiscal conservatism. He’s branched out a bit to try to attract the reactionary base, but he’s not had too much luck so far. Folwell’s candidacy may be the canary in coal mine for the Reaganites and the bird might already be dead.

That said, Robinson keeps getting bad news. He’s been trying to moderate himself, downplaying his bombastic rhetoric, but he’s having trouble escaping his history. Old Facebook posts recently surfaced showing him quoting Hitler. His defenders say he’s taken out of context, but quoting Hitler never works out very well regardless of the circumstances. He’s in the big boy arena now.

Robinson also has a history of forgetting to pay his taxes. He claimed that he had a problem with math. That’s not a great argument when you want to govern a state with a budget of $30 billion.

Still, the GOP base has so far stuck by him. Folwell will need resources to educate Republicans about Robinson’s liabilities as a general election candidate. So far, he’s struggled with fundraising and most of his money listed in the June 30 report came from a $1 million loan to his campaign. He’ll need to capitalize on Robinson’s blunders to convince a MAGA-dominated primary electorate to abandon one of their own for a more pragmatic candidate.

With four months before the primary, Stein and Robinson seem likely to secure their party’s nominations for governor. Stein is already vetted with an organization and fundraising operation. A scandal seems unlikely. As for Robinson, he’s got MAGA behind him and their low-dollar contributions. In today’s GOP, Robinson’s scandals actually help him. A few more and he’ll be unstoppable. If only he could secure an indictment.