After the weekend
The trends at the end of last week held steady, but there are still a lot of people left to vote.
We’ll start the week with an update on early voting in North Carolina. Polls were open on both Saturday and Sunday this past weekend. Democrats outperformed Republicans, but Unaffiliated voters outpaced Democrats. Both Democrats and Republicans are still just banking votes. More than 90% of the those who identify with a party are frequent voters. Overall, Republicans have an edge over Democrats by little more than 35,000 voters among in-person early voters.
The unaffiliated voters have been voting at much higher rates this year than in the past. While most are regular voters, about 14% are first time voters. Unsurprisingly, those voters are younger. More than two-thirds of the new voters are under 45 years old, which should be good for Democrats. Overall, though, unaffiliated voters are older with almost half over 55 years old, meaning they probably lean pretty heavily Republican.
Based on turnout and exit polls, Republicans won around 63% of unaffiliated voters in 2020. How these unaffiliated voters break this year could determine the election. Historically, they have been more Republican because the old Jessiecrats (or Dixiecrats) registered unaffiliated on their way to becoming Republican. In recent years, they are probably shifting more Democratic, albeit slowly, because younger voters who are more likely to support Democrats even though they are not registering with a party.
North Carolina Democrats are still missing a lot of Black voters. They have about a 54,000 African American voter deficit compared to the 2020 in-person early voters, a gap that has held steady since late last week after shrinking the first few days of the week. That’s not an insurmountable amount of voters but Democrats will need to make it up over the final six days of early voting or on Election Day.
If turnout is 75% this year, like it was in 2020, then there are a little more than 3 million voters left to vote. Of the likely voters, about 33% are Democrat, 32% Republican and 35% unaffiliated. These unaffiliated voters that are left to vote are younger than the unaffiliated voters who have shown up at the polls so far. About 55% are under 45 years old or younger.
Democrats and Republicans both have a little under 1 million likely voters left to vote. Getting them to the polls will be essential. Finding new voters will probably determine who wins the election.
Of the registered voters who have no history of voting, more than half are unaffiliated and more than half are under 35 years old. Democrats have far more targets than Republicans among these less likely voters. Moving these voters to the polls will be the role of GOTV operations on both sides.
We have a long way to go. We can figure out who has voted and who is left to vote, but we won’t know how they voted until after Election Day. Voters surprise us every now and then.
I have faith that a great number of women are winnable on the issue of women's reproductive rights. My granddaughter is a communication officer with Emily's List, which is a single issue PAC devoted to abortion rights. She is working so hard, coast to coast with female candidates and she is so encouraged. There are more women voters and they are more motivated, and certainly more likely not to share their choices with spouses, families and friends.
This election is one of the strangest I've seen since I began following politics. A small percentage of voter’s echo MAGA talking points, such as blaming Antifa for Jan 6 or claiming Donald Trump, who never served, cares for the military as he attended military school despite his comments calling fallen troops "losers” or disrespecting John McCain's service as he was captured.
This win-or-lose mentality was instilled in The Donald by his father. I write off these comments as they tend to represent a small number of people who suffer from lack of the ability to think critically or like the few billionaires have something to gain.
Under these circumstances the term silent majority seems worthy of consideration.
There are many folks who strongly object to government sticking its noses into women’s healthcare issues. Find the notion that wealth somehow trickles down to defy common sense. The notion of electing a candidate who underwent two impeachment proceedings, suffered thirty-four felony convictions for fraud and is currently awaiting trial of several other felony charges some involving treasonous activities against this country unacceptable . These voters can be the unaffiliated, and republicans who have strong feelings about democracy and the rule of law. It is difficult to evaluate who these folks may be or in what numbers they exist. But my instincts tell me they are in the majority. Even though they may find Harris lacking in some quality they consider important, they will vote for her.