A vibe election

Harris has gotten the attention usually reserved for political conventions--and the DNC is three weeks away.

I can’t stop reading and thinking about the past month of this election cycle. We’re living in an extraordinary political moment. The earth is shifting beneath the feet of of the presidential campaigns and the dust has yet to settle. We won’t know the true impact of the events of the last thirty days for another few of weeks and maybe not until September after the DNC convention bump dies down.

It feels like we’re heading into a vibe election, one where feelings matter more than issues. Obama 2008 was a vibe campaign. Hope and change wasn’t a message. It was a vibe. The 1992 Clinton-Gore campaign was another one. After eight years of Reagan followed by four years of the staid, East Coast elitism of a buttoned-down George H. W. Bush, the youthful duo and their energetic families felt like the change that we needed from the recession of the early 1990s. Jimmy Carter, the humble peanut farmer from Georgia, presented a great contrast to the Washington-centered Watergate era. And John F. Kennedy led us into a technological age that took us to the moon and gave us vibrancy in the midst of the Cold War that many thought we were losing. Vibe campaigns are actually reactionary, a response to unpleasant realities that have dominated the public discourse, often for years.

The common thread in all of these elections is a sense of hope that awakens in young people who are cynical about the status quo. They are looking for a better future fueled by optimism. They see that hope reflected in the demeanor of the candidates asking for their vote. Right now, Harris has it.

The bulk of the country was dissatisfied with the choice in the election prior to last week. They saw two old men, both deeply flawed in different ways, unable to address the malaise that has settled over the country since the pandemic. Suddenly, they have a new option, a woman with energy and optimism who better reflects their hopes for the future instead of the politics of the past. Young people are taking notice. TikTok is jumping and influencers are engaging their followers. Kamala Harris is creating a vibe.

For the next week or so, the Veepstakes will dominate the conversation as a handful of talented Democratic leaders audition for the post. Will Harris pick someone who reinforces the vibe like Clinton did with Gore or will she choose somebody who is more attractive to older people less influenced by the hype like Obama tapping Biden and Kennedy choosing Johnson? Regardless, for the next week, the media will be focused more on Harris and the potential VP picks than on Trump and his cronies.

That is, unless something major changes the conversation. Trump could dump Vance and try to put Hailey or some other moderate on the ticket. That would alter the political landscape and I certainly wouldn’t put it past him. Loyalty only runs one way in Trump World and public humiliation is a fact of life. Trump would certainly put himself back into the spotlight that he so pathetically craves.

Harris also is going to enjoy the media equivalent of two conventions just a month apart. Modern political conventions are no longer about nominating candidates. Instead, they offer each party the opportunity to rally the faithful and show off their wares to the country with the full attention of the media. The process of switching from Biden to Harris knocked Trump off of center stage in the wake of the RNC with most of the attention shifting to Harris and the Democrats’ rapid consolidation around her candidacy.

Now, she’s involved in the process of picking a running mate and the suspense is sucking up most of the media oxygen. And in just three weeks, the Democratic National Convention will begin, focusing the media’s attention on the Democrats again. That’s a lot of positive air time for the Harris campaign.

At some point, the press is going to turn on Harris in an effort to seem fair. The good news will slow and the press will start mimicking some of the Fox News talking points. The Trump campaign will try to make the race about her record, claiming she’s weak on immigration, soft on crime, and bad for the economy. So far, the Harris campaign has gotten out in front of contentious issues like Gaza and fracking. They’ll need to continue to do that and be prepared to push back on a media that tries to treat Trump as a traditional candidate.

The excitement and the enthusiasm for Harris has been harnessed expertly by her campaign. They’ve exploited every opportunity to maximize its benefit from driving contributions to record levels to signing up hundreds of thousands of volunteers to dominating news cycle after news cycle. Harris has been stellar in her public appearances. Their challenge will be to continue their flawless transition from the Biden re-election to the Harris campaign. They’ve created a vibe that will motivate young people and African American voters, the people Democrats need to show up in this year’s election and the ones who seemed most skeptical of Biden. Now, they will need to sustain it.

Ninety-nine days is a life time in politics as the past thirty days has just shown. Keeping the vibe alive is no small task, but if the Harris campaign can do it, they can win in November.