A majority in name only

Republicans are reliant on Democrats to govern in the House.

Happy Friday! I started writing PoliticsNC eleven years ago this month. It’s been quite a ride. If you’re enjoying what you read, help me celebrate this anniversary month by becoming a paid subscriber. If you’re a paid subscriber, thanks so much for your support! Have a great weekend.

The Hastert rule is dead—at least for now. For the past 30 years, Republican Speakers have adhered to a rule that no bill would reach the floor of the House unless a majority of the GOP caucus approved it. While there were exceptions, they were few. The rule killed a lot of legislation that had broad bipartisan support, including immigration reform, that might have eased the widening political divide. Today, it’s crippled the GOP’s ability to govern.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has decided that he’s going to pass legislation that he believes is important to the country regardless of the support in his caucus. His right flank has left the GOP an ungovernable party. They can’t or won’t pass basic bills to keep the country functioning. Johnson is turning to Democrats despite threats from the likes of Marjorie Taylor Green to oust him from his position.

So far, Johnson has passed legislation to prevent a government shutdown with the help of Democrats. Now, he is on the brink of passing aid to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel with Democratic support. He may need Democratic support if he wants to remain Speaker if MTG goes through with her threat to put a motion to vacate the chair to a floor vote.

Since taking the House majority following the 2022 election, Republicans have been unable to pass anything. Almost all the significant legislation they’ve passed has required votes of Democrats. They’ve needed Democratic votes to avoid two government shutdowns.

Politically, the bipartisanship comes with risks. Reaching across the aisle cost Kevin McCarthy his Speakership. Democrats were unwilling to bail him out because they believed McCarthy had lied to them and reneged on promises. As Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger said about McCarthy at the time, “I think he’s likely the most unprincipled person to ever be Speaker of the House. He’s disdainful, he lies about us, he lies about the process of governance.”

Johnson is catching flack from his right flank, but Democrats don’t hold him in contempt they way they did McCarthy. Several Democratic Members of Congress have said they they would support him if Green and company tries to oust him. Democratic Rep. Tom Souzzi said that he would support Johnson because the Speaker is trying to do the right thing. Other Democrats have said they will come to the rescue with conditions.

The reality is that an effort to ditch Johnson would probably strengthen Democrats’ position in Congress. Support from Democrats would almost certainly cost Johnson. They could force through more bipartisan legislation. Allowing Johnson to go down would cause further chaos in an already dysfunctional GOP caucus. Either way, a vote to dismiss Johnson will be another win for Democrats.

The current Republican House Majority has made Democrats the most successful minority party in recent history. The GOP has failed to pass a single signature measure while Democrats have kept government running and are about to pass aid to foreign aid package that most House Republicans oppose. In addition, Republicans tanked a bipartisan border security bill that could have given the leverage in November and, instead, may be used as a wedge against them.

The House GOP caucus also illustrates how the party has been captured by its right flank. The most visible members of the House caucus besides Johnson are nuts and cranks whose views are outside the mainstream of the American public. They are literally siding with our enemies instead of our allies yet they keep winning GOP primaries. They’ve focused on sham impeachment proceedings which predictably went nowhere instead of the problems facing our country. Now, Democrats need to figure out how to make them pay a political price.

Republicans are not functioning like a traditional majority party. They are deeply divided and members are fleeing Congress, opting not to run for re-election. The right flank has proven the GOP to be a performative party instead of a governing one. Democrats, in contrast, have shown remarkable discipline and unity. They’ve managed to pass bills and shown their support is more important than that of their Republican colleagues, even for leadership positions. The success of the Speaker is in their hands, not his party’s.