A dynamic electorate

Demographics are not necessarily destiny

Back in 2002, a book called the Emerging Democratic Majority gave liberals hope for the future at a time when Dick Cheney was president and the Reagan Revolution and then the Gingrich Revolution had reshaped the post-War, New Deal political landscape. The book spawned the belief among Democrats that “demographics are destiny.” A supposedly browner and younger population was coming of age that would take the country in a new leftward direction, rejecting the tenets of free market extremism and social conservatism. Instead, we’re more divided than ever and states across the nation are banning abortion.

The thesis assumed that voter behavior was stagnant instead of dynamic. Between the time the book was written and now, Democratic support among working class whites collapsed. College educated white voters, the backbone of the Reagan Revolution, increasingly support Democrats. Clearly, the Democratic Majority never emerged.

I mention all of this because earlier this week I wrote a piece about the incessant stories about Democrats’ problems with Black voters. While African Americans are still the most loyal block of Democratic voters, support is declining in some areas, but it’s slow and can’t be written about in a vacuum. The forces that might be moving some voters away from a party are the same ones driving other voters toward it.

African American men have long lagged other demographics in voter turnout. I’ve never seen a definitive analysis of why, but I imagine there are numerous factors. In general, I suspect they have less faith that they can impact the system and are more distrustful of government They are incarcerated at a higher rate, by far, than any other group. They have higher unemployment rates and lower educational levels. They are the most obvious victims of the legacy of the systemic racism that Republicans deny.

Older, evangelical African American voters have likely become alienated by some of the Democratic Party’s more progressive stands, particularly around gender and sexuality. These voters are responding to changes in society in a way similar to their white counterparts. While they’re having doubts about the direction of the Democratic Party, they still aren’t embracing a GOP that considers white supremacists a necessary part of their coalition. They are probably taking a pass on some Democrats and supporting some Republicans that they believe reflect their beliefs.

The flip side of the coin, though, is that younger, more educated voters are moving towards Democrats for the same reason those older African Americans are moving away from them. Thirty or forty years ago, younger white voters, early in their professional careers, were becoming Republicans because they embraced the lower taxes, anti-regulation, and anti-crime efforts that were a bedrock of Reagan conservatism. Today, that cohort is rejecting Republicans because those low taxes have left them with huge college debt and they don’t care about the sexuality or gender identity issues that animate so much of the Party of Trump. They equate anti-regulation with climate change and PFAS.

In North Carolina, where African American voters make up more than 20% of the registered voters, journalists and reporters who are focusing on low Black turnout need to also look at the shifts occurring in the suburbs. Counties that ring cities like Raleigh and Charlotte may still be voting Republican but the margins for the GOP are shrinking every election cycle. The only fast growing counties that are moving toward Republicans are ones along the coast where retirees are driving the growth.

While African American turnout is a problem for Democrats, there’s not much evidence that Black voters are switching their allegiance in a large numbers. Instead, Democrats are increasingly eating into GOP margins among white suburban voters that used to be the bedrock of the conservative movement. And Democrats may be picking up some of the younger, educated white voters for the same reason older, uneducated Black voters are becoming disillusioned with the party.

My broader point is that the American electorate is dynamic. It’s shifting all the time, often more slowly than most people notice, but occasionally very quickly as in the case of middle aged rural white voters who embraced Trump quickly and completely. Still, looking at the voting behavior of single demographic group monolithically is too simplistic to understand the forces at work shaping American politics.