A defining moment

Since January 6, Democrats have been telling people to believe what they saw, not what Republicans say. The same principle applies to the debate.

After I wrote my column on Friday, I hooked up the camper and headed to the mountains and have essentially been off-line until last night. Instead of reading a lot of takes on the debates and following the Sunday news shows, I took a couple of long hikes to some very remote and impressive waterfalls. And I reflected on what I saw Thursday night.

After that debate, I don’t believe Joe Biden can win. Too many people saw what a lot of people have been saying for a long time: He’s too old to serve another term. The shouts of “Four more years!” ring hollow because nobody believes he will make it four more years in the White House even if he happened to win.

His performance was not a “blip,” as his handlers are saying this morning. He didn’t just make a few gaffes or stumble on his answers. It was a defining moment in the campaign. Biden was clearly confused in the way only people with declining cognitive abilities are confused. He may have recovered a bit in the second half of the debate, but nobody believes those problems are going to get better over time.

Ever since Republicans have been making ridiculous statements defending the January 6 attackers, Democrats have been telling people to believe what they saw, not what the Trumpists are saying. Now, Republicans have that same argument about Biden. Americans saw the President make disjointed statements detached from reality and lose his thoughts mid-sentence. The Trump campaign is not going to let us forget it.

We’ve been saying that young people will save the Democrats, but they aren’t coming out for Joe Biden. My daughters don’t believe he can win because they don’t believe their peers will vote for Biden. My niece says the same thing. They will either sit out the election or vote for some third party candidate. Thursday night sealed that deal.

The Biden folks are pushing back. Campaign Manager Jen O’Malley Dillon sent out an email that read, “It’s a familiar story: Following Thursday night’s debate, the beltway class is counting Joe Biden out.” But that’s not right. It’s the beltway insiders urging Biden to stay in the race. Establishment types like Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn were quick to Biden’s defense. Rank-and-file Democrats, especially young ones, are dismayed. Swing voters are turned off.

The campaign claims that the debate had no impact on the state of the race. Pollster Geoff Garin said, “[T]he debate had no effect on the vote choice. The election was extremely close and competitive before the debate, and it is still extremely close and competitive today.” I suspect Joe Biden has peaked and those polls will tell a different story moving forward.

Those who argue that the choice is the same before the debate as after it are wrong. Joe Biden is no longer just saddled with inflation and a generally dissatisfied electorate. Now, the questions about his mental and physical ability will overshadow his record as president or his positions on issues. The questions he seemed to put to rest in his State of the Union address will dominate the conversation again.

In the minds of most Americans, the choice now is between character and competency. Do you want an amoral convicted felon or a mentally and physically challenged octogenarian? It’s a lousy choice that will likely lead to a drop-off in turnout, especially among the people Biden needs to win.

Democrats should look at replacing Biden as an opportunity. Most of the country is dismayed with their choices for president. Choosing a replacement for Biden might inspire hope in the American people and would certainly focus the country on the Democrats and their process for choosing a new candidate. It would create the type of drama that the media loves and the American people follow. If Biden steps down, Democrats can argue that they are putting country over party, replacing a leader who would likely not be fit to serve an entire term. Republicans, in contrast, have stuck with a felon clearly unfit to serve, putting party over country.

If Biden stays on the ticket, we’ll have a rough four months. The question of age and mental and physical abilities will be the focus of the media. Democrats in competitive Senate and Congressional races across the country will distance themselves from the president, likely making the argument that they deserve support as a check on Trump’s power. Biden will arrive to thinning crowds devoid of party leaders. The convention in August may be more like a wake than a party.

I believe Joe Biden has been an exceptionally good president. I suspect his legacy will grow over time, like those of Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman. I also suspect that dropping out will protect his legacy. Staying in will harm it.